Written By Brandon Warne
An under-the-radar signing the Minnesota Twins made just before Christmas was with former San Diego Padres right-hander Tim Stauffer. Stauffer — who turns 33 around midseason this year — has worked in the rotation and in the bullpen for the Padres, with whom he’s spent all of his nine big league seasons.
In leaner times, Stauffer would be a rotation candidate for the Twins. In fact, that seems to be the company line heading into Spring Training. But with a bevy of candidates for the No. 5 starter’s spot — Alex Meyer, Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey, Trevor May, Logan Darnell, etc. — it seems more likely that Stauffer would be ticketed for middle relief.
Stauffer has shown some pretty disparate splits over his career. Stauffer has a career ERA of 3.87, though that splits out to 4.29 as a starter (404.2 innings) and 2.85 as a reliever (170.1 innings). It’s no surprise that the numbers favor any pitcher in a short burst, but the case goes further than just ERA. Stauffer has fanned a solid 8.5 batters per 9 innings as a reliever and just 6.1 as a starter. He has also allowed a .265/.332/.421 line to opposing hitters as a starter (think something along the lines of Trevor Plouffe’s breakout 2014 season), while limiting hitters to just .240/.304/.352 as a reliever (something like Jason Kipnis’ season this past year).
That’s not to say most pitchers transitioning from one to the other wouldn’t provide that sort of boost, as the Twins have seen with the likes of Brian Duensing, and to an extreme, Glen Perkins. But those stats for Stauffer as a starter are before considering a smaller stadium – San Diego’s Petco Park is largely regarded as the best pitcher’s park in the game — and a new league for Stauffer.
Having Stauffer work as a starter in Spring Training — and the same goes for Meyer, May and anyone else who could help out of the bullpen temporarily — is just fine because the transition is a one-way street. Even if the Twins know today that Stauffer will work the sixth inning, having him work as a reliever in the spring doesn’t prepare him for the very, very minute chance the club needs him as a starter. It’s easy enough to scale back a guy’s innings, but it’s much more difficult to stretch him back out again. So for now, it’s most likely ‘organization-speak’ that Stauffer is being considered for a starting job. Stauffer was last a full-time, healthy starter in 2011, when he made 31 starts spanning 185.2 innings with a 3.73 ERA.
When Stauffer is at his finest, he induces a lot of groundballs. That wasn’t the case in 2014, as his 41.9 percent rate ranked below league average for the first time in at least five seasons. From 2010-13, Stauffer’s rates were well into the 50 percent range. Grounders will play anywhere, but it could be a bit more worrisome if that rate continues to tumble as he moves to a smaller, but still pretty accommodating home park. Target Field still plays relatively big, most notably to left-handed hitters, who still find the tall wall in right field difficult to scale. In fact, Target Field plays big to each part of the ballpark with the exception of the left field foul pole.
Stauffer hasn’t shown much of a platoon split in his career, which is to say he’s put away right-handed hitters and lefties with similar proficiency. He’s allowed a .737 career OPS to righties and a .712 to lefties, which would almost qualify as a bit of a reverse split — perhaps in part due to his reliance on a two-seam fastball that would work back into the swing of a right-hander hitter.
The repertoire for Stauffer isn’t really flashy, especially not when considering he’s fanned nearly a batter per inning as a reliever in his career. Stauffer works in the low 90s with a two- and four-seamer — he threw each about 26 percent of the time last year — and mixes in a slider, curve and changeup. In short, he has a starter’s repertoire but a reliever’s workload. At least that was the case in 2014. Stauffer dabbled with a cutter a few years back but appears to have scrapped it.
Stauffer’s changeup usage spiked this past season at 17.3 percent. As we have noted multiple times this offseason, that will be a pitch to watch for all Twins pitchers as Neil Allen takes over the reins as pitching coach. Allen comes from the Tampa organization, which loves its changeups.
Diving into Stauffer’s PITCHf/x profile — basically the breakdown of what pitch does what, and how opponents fare against it – reveals that he really did throw almost the same number of two- and four-seamers last year. PITCHf/x suggests he threw one more four-seamer. It’s not surprising that the four-seamer was blasted to the tune of .309/.387/.564. Some of the noise in these numbers has to be reflective of how certain pitches are used. When Stauffer has to rely on his low-90’s heat, it’s most likely in situations where he has fallen behind in the count and needs to locate to try steal strikes. Four-seamers can get brutalized for even the best pitchers.
Stauffer’s two-seamer was much better, as opponents hit just .295/.343/.361. That low slugging percentage would lead me to believe it was his go-to groundball pitch — and extra-base hits are hard to get with grounders, right? A quick glance shows that yes, in fact, Stauffer got a 54 percent groundball rate with the two-seamer last year. What’s positive about this is that it would seem Stauffer can still get the grounders he most likely needs to sustain longer-term success, especially considering this iteration of Twins outfield defense will quite likely prod the right-hander to rely on his closer pals like Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Danny Santana and Joe Mauer — if you catch what I’m saying.
Stauffer’s slider is OK, and it pretty much has always been just a decent secondary. His go-to pitch for strikeouts is the changeup, which had a lethal swinging strike rate of 26.7 percent last year. Against it, opponents batted just .175/.217/.246 last year, which extrapolates out to 10 for 57 with six singles and four doubles. Twenty-six of Stauffer’s 67 strikeouts came with the changeup last year, despite him throwing it just 17.3 percent of the time — his fourth-most frequent pitch.
So that’s probably a bigger breakdown than you expected for a No. 5 starter/sixth-inning relief candidate. But it was a surprising move considering the number of arms the Twins will bring into camp, and yet it was a pretty solid, shrewd move by the Twins’ brass. Most likely, the Twins would love to see Stauffer give the club a few great months in middle relief so they can move him and cede those duties to a younger, cheaper player while getting back good value. For Stauffer, Target Field is a good park to do exactly that.