Written By Sam Ekstrom
Here’s what we know about the Adrian Peterson situation at the moment:
The NFL Players Association appealed Peterson’s suspension in front of Judge David Doty on Friday in Minneapolis court.
Peterson is suspended until at least April 15, pending certain behavioral requirements.
The players union wants Peterson reinstated immediately on the grounds that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell overstepped his bounds when doling out punishment for Peterson’s alleged child abuse.
The best scenario for Peterson is obviously to be reinstated immediately. It gives him – and his team – enough time to weigh their options before decisions have to be made. Doty will rule within the month, which could make Peterson a full participant in league activities once free agency arrives on March 10.
A story written on Thursday by the Pioneer Press’s Brian Murphy, however, quotes longtime arbitrator Roger Abrams, who believes Peterson is unlikely to see the suspension revoked.
Vikings fans who yearn to see No. 28 don the purple and gold once again should probably root for Abrams’ claim to come true.
Keep in mind that Peterson’s contract was considered too large to retain before the reports of his harsh child discipline were made known. Minnesota may have parted ways with Peterson anyway in order to save $13 million against the salary cap.
The difference is that Peterson, in an alternate reality where he doesn’t switch his son, could have been released; then inevitably signed on with a different team for a hefty salary. His value still would have been high without the scar of a drawn out child abuse case.
But in this reality, Peterson’s leverage would be gone if the Vikings released him after April 15. He will be 30 years old – a benchmark for running back decline – and will have the baggage of the past eight months coming along with him. But most importantly, there may not be a market for him, making Peterson more likely to restructure in Minnesota instead of forcing the Vikings’ hand by demanding too steep a salary.
There are 36 days between March 10, when free agency starts, and April 15, Peterson’s potential reinstatement. That is the time for teams to wine and dine free agents, to engage in bidding wars, to fill holes they would otherwise need to address during the draft starting April 30. Lots of money gets thrown around – oftentimes more than anticipated – and salary caps can get tight.
Peterson will not sign anywhere to split carries 50/50 or be somebody’s backup. If he signs elsewhere, he would want to be a feature back. With that in mind, it seems unlikely that teams would leave a gaping hole at the running back position in the anticipation of maybe getting to negotiate with Peterson two weeks before the draft. In fact, it seems foolish.
If the market is dried up, then Peterson’s offers will, of course, be lower than he wants. Peterson is on record saying he believes he is worth full price — in other words, the salary he is under contract to make. While this is a keen negotiating tactic, it’s a virtual impossibility that Peterson will be paid his full 2015 salary unless the Vikings find a gullible trade suitor (reverse Herschel Walker, anyone?) or the spirit of Al Davis spooks the Raiders front office into ponying up for A.P.
The elephant in the room is the Dallas Cowboys and owner/GM Jerry Jones, who reportedly spoke with Peterson about the potential of the Texas native someday playing for America’s Team. But Dallas had the NFL’s top rusher, DeMarco Murray, wearing the star on his helmet last year. Murray is a pending free agent but could be retained through the franchise tag or a long-term contract.
Even for the unpredictable Jerry Jones, cutting ties with Murray and waiting out Peterson’s suspension would be too outlandish to realistically expect.
No, there’s no easy route for Peterson if his hands are tied until mid-April. He’ll then be asked to come to the Vikings’ negotiating table and talk out the dollars. While the NFL is, indeed, a business, it would be hard for Peterson to ignore the fact that the Vikings were certainly kind to him throughout the ordeal – at least from a PR standpoint. Rick Spielman put his neck on the line for Peterson, and while he took a lot of flak in a room full of reporters, he never threw Peterson under the bus. Coach Mike Zimmer repeatedly spoke highly of Peterson and voiced his support for his family throughout the season. Spielman also pumped up Peterson’s value in a post-season luncheon with the media.
When the Baltimore Ravens attempted to wash their hands of an ugly situation by releasing Ray Rice in September, they gave Rice the stigma of being damaged goods. Not surprisingly, he was never signed by another team despite being eligible in November. In Minnesota’s case, while endorsement deals fell through and social media outcry bashed the Vikings, Peterson and the NFL, Minnesota did their best to not burn a bridge with Peterson, which could play in their favor come negotiating time.
If Peterson wants to be the highest paid running back in football, he can still be that while taking a reduction in salary. Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch was offered around $10 million in a potential new extension, while Murray would sign for $10.9 million if he is given the franchise tag. Peterson could reduce his salary by $4 million and still be in rarified air atop the pay scale.
What nobody knows is the Vikings’ actual intent. If they truly want Peterson back, as they have indicated in several statements during and after the football season, then their best chance to retain him is to ride out his legal woes and restructure his contract in April.
But if they’ve been bluffing, if they would actually prefer to chop $13 million off the cap and put it towards the secondary or the offensive line, then both sides would be rooting for the same thing: A Peterson victory in the courts.
Sam Ekstrom is a staff writer for Cold Omaha at 105 The Ticket and a play-by-play broadcaster in Burnsville, Minn. Hear him on 105 The Ticket Sunday mornings from 8-10 a.m. on “The Wake Up Call.” Follow him on Twitter @SamEkstrom for further insights.