Written By Brandon Warne
If one were to make a bullet-pointed list of the things that plagued the Minnesota Twins in 2014, No. 1 without question would be the starting rotation. Here’s how the Twins ranked among other teams’ rotations league wide:
Wins – 47 (fourth fewest)
Innings – 913.1 (second fewest)
Strikeouts per 9 innings – 6.36 (second fewest)
ERA – 5.06 (worst)
FIP (fielding adjusted ERA) – 4.03 (sixth worst)
xFIP (ERA adjusted a bit differently) – 4.08 (fourth worst)
It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. And yet here we are in early February, and the Twins are bringing back over half the rotation from last season. It’s not surprising that fans on message boards, Facebook posts and Twitter skew negative — way negative, in fact. But at the same time, it doesn’t mean the rotation is without hope, and it’s not just coming from the kids either.
The club might say different publicly, but it’s pretty much a given that the first four spots are mortal locks:
- Phil Hughes
- Ervin Santana
- Ricky Nolasco
- Kyle Gibson
We can sit here all day and quibble about the fact that Gibson was better than Nolasco last season — clearly, he was — but at the same time, money and veteran status have been, and quite likely always will, play a role in so-called societal status in baseball. It hardly matters, and it might not even mean the difference of one start over the course of the full season.
Anyway, these four are in. Hughes couldn’t have pitched any better last year, and quite frankly, shouldn’t have a considerable downside even if he can’t continue not walking batters at a historical rate. He was the runaway No. 1 pitcher in attacking the strike zone last year, and the numbers advantage for a pitcher starting a count 0-1 rather than 1-0 is huge, and he took full advantage of it. Even with his (relatively modest) extension figured in, he should continue to be a great value for the Twins moving forward.
Santana has not only been durable — top-10 in innings pitched over the past five seasons — but can also at times flash ace-type stuff, with a nasty wipeout slider that is a legitimate strikeout pitch. It’s been a while since a Twins pitcher could be branded with one of those. Interestingly, Santana pulled back on the usage of that pitch in September, throwing it just 28.9 percent of the time while firing four-seamers on 53.3 percent of his offerings. The fastball usage was the most he’d done in two full years, while the slider cratering was the fewest he had thrown in any appreciable sample size since April 2008. Considering the Braves were six games out of the division title, and won just six games the entire month of September, it’s worth wondering if Santana was saving himself for the payday he figured was looming. It could also be a worrisome look into his future if he was, for any reason, feeling anything in his right arm. Either way, Santana is more than adequate as the No. 2 on this rotation.
Nolasco’s debut season couldn’t have gone any worse. He basically flip-flopped roles with Hughes, as the younger and lesser-paid option vastly out-produced the supposed work horse who could get a strikeout when he needed to. Nolasco’s fastball velocity was about where it should have been, but he was markedly slower on his offspeed pitches. That, for him, is troubling, as his fastball has always been a pitch he’s been hit hard on. Over his career, opposing hitters have posted a .307/.355/.517 batting line against it, while markedly lower on his slider, curve and changeup. More troubling yet is that Nolasco threw 702 sliders in 2014 — just behind 724 fastballs — and opponents hit .301/.326/.491 off it. His career line on the slider, even with last year’s debacle factored in, is .234/.263/.368. Ricky copping to some arm issues makes sense, simply from a “what in the world?” aspect, but at the same time, it’s rather worrisome with him in a new league entering his age-32 season. He’ll need to get it going in a hurry.
I broke down Gibson’s chances for success here, but basically speaking, here is the gist: as he puts Tommy John surgery further in his rearview mirror, he appears to be gaining better feel for his secondary pitches. As far as outcomes, he was markedly better with his slider last year, which is important as a pitch that takes a directly opposite path from his bread-and-butter, the sinker. Keeping hitters — especially lefties — honest to both sides of the plate, as well as establishing a developing changeup, will only aid Gibson in his continued development. Until I dug deeper into his profile, I didn’t believe he was on the cusp of anything more than being a back-end starter. I’m a bit more positive on him right now and think he could be a nice No. 3 if he continues to improve his strikeout figures. Gibson struck out just 4.7 batters per 9 innings in the first half of 2014, but registered a much improved 6.2 mark in the second half — including a 7.3 in August. The AL average mark for starters last year was 7.4, and if Gibson can get there with his groundball profile, he could be a really, really nice piece for the Twins.
This leads us to the dogpile of viable candidates for the No. 5 spot. Let’s break them down briefly, with a general idea of their likelihood of grabbing that spot:
Tommy Milone – He’ll turn 28 in spring training, and the nice thing about Milone is that he’s got a pretty good track record of success in similar ballparks. Milone is more of a ‘safe’ choice for the rotation, but that probably gives him a leg up with his almost 500 career innings of 3.98 ERA pitching. Milone doesn’t throw hard, is a bit home run-prone and was downright awful in his brief stint with the Twins. But even with his warts, it seems he may have a slight leg-up in the race for the No. 5 spot.
Likelihood – 50 percent
Trevor May – May’s cup of coffee was anything but ideal, but he was a whole lot better in September (9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.48 FIP) than August (7.1 K/9, 6.6 BB/9, 5.64 FIP). That gives him a strong chance to make this rotation, but he is probably the riskier pick organizationally, especially since the Twins tendered Milone a contract that would make him a somewhat overpaid long reliever — more on that in a second. The Twins have been markedly more splashy in recent years; three of the last four seasons have seen the club set records for the biggest free agent deal it has handed out. If Hughes had been signed a year earlier, that’d make four years in a row. This isn’t the same rank and file, fall-in-line Twins team from years past. Pushing May out of Spring Training would qualify as a somewhat splashy move. Not as wild as possible, but definitely pushing the envelope a bit.
Likelihood – 40 percent
Mike Pelfrey – Big Pelf gets a crack because he was quasi-decent in 2013, and quite frankly he’s being paid to be there. That he can, at times, reach the mid- to upper-90s with a fastball and has some interesting secondaries has led me to repeatedly suggest he could be a fantastic late-inning reliever. This year may be the chance we get to see that, with Pelfrey first taking earlier innings and ascending his way to the back of the bullpen much like Glen Perkins did. If he cracks this rotation, there will be a lot of unhappy fans. That’s not fair to rest it upon Pelfrey’s shoulders, but that’s just where we are at this point with this fanbase.
Likelihood – 5 percent
Alex Meyer – The tall righty has displayed some endurance issues and trouble repeating his delivery, leading to command woes that have plenty of unaffiliated types suggesting he’ll be a power reliever. Nobody with the Twins is thinking about that right now and for good reason. Still, Meyer probably needs some more time at Triple-A, especially with how his stretch run ended — .883 OPS against, 5.63 ERA in August — before the club is going to give him a sustained look with the big club. That would qualify as a much bigger splash than May, who is a half-step ahead in terms of development. Meyer’s ceiling is significantly higher — no pun intended.
Likelihood – 5 percent
Tim Stauffer – The Twins may let Stauffer, who made 30-plus starts in a season as recently as 2011, come to Spring Training and make a start or two, but ideally he’ll pitch well enough in middle relief to fetch a decent return at the trade deadline. Or help an upstart team through the dog days here in Minnesota. Baby steps.
Likelihood – Roughly zero
Logan Darnell – Similarly, lefty Darnell might make some starts especially on split-squad days, but his future most likely resides in the bullpen, especially since he’s been lethal to lefties the last couple seasons in the minors. For right now, he’s nice 40-man depth.
Likelihood – Roughly zero