Written By Sam Ekstrom
It was your garden variety Timberwolves blowout Wednesday night: outscored by 10 in the first quarter; down by 19 at half; limping to a 25-point loss against a Portland team that barely had to break a sweat.
But head coach Flip Saunders made some pre-game remarks that set Twitter die-hards loose with proverbial pitchforks and torches, making for a more interesting night than usual. The gist of his statement amounted to not wanting rookie Andrew Wiggins to shoot too many 3-point shots – the one area of his game that could make him truly Kobe-like if honed. Critics destroyed Saunders like Wiggins destroyed Rudy Gobert until an irritated Timberwolves PR Twitter account poured water on the situation with some context that slowed everyone’s Flip-related freak out. (We know they were irritated because of their captioned ellipses.)
It’s safe to say that nobody wants Wiggins to be complacent and settle for long jumpers as opposed to be the aggressive Rookie of the Year that he is sure to become. In that regard, Saunders is on point. But it’s also safe to say that a player of Wiggins’ caliber shouldn’t accept having a weakness around the perimeter. Improving that aspect should be a prerequisite for entry into his “sophomore” NBA season: Perfect the 3, Andrew, and you may advance to the next level. Regardless of Saunders’ intention with these quotes, it brought to light a disturbing trend of a young Wolves team that is, for some reason, hesitant to shoot the 3.
The venom towards Saunders’ aversion to long-range shooting was not a secret. Fans and media had been grumbling about it all season, wondering if the veteran coach was truly ignorant of the new-age 3-point-centric NBA, or if he simply felt that he was severely hampered by a roster of players incapable of launching a 24-foot shot. But surely, a young team with ill-equipped personnel simply needed experience and could not improve its shooting without substantial repetitions; a.k.a., LET YOUR 60-LOSS TEAM CHUCK 3’S, FLIP!
Saying the Timberwolves are a mediocre 3-point shooting team would be generous. They clock in at 25th in the league at 33.2 percent – par for the course in Minnesota where Wolves teams have been 23rd or below each of the last four years. But more paramount here is the team’s alarming lack of attempts. Minnesota takes just under 15 3-point attempts for game (14.8), which gives them 1,140 per the year – dead last in the NBA. In stark contrast are the high-volume shooters in Portland, who’ve attempted nearly twice the amount of 3’s as Minnesota this year (27.2/game). The Trail Blazers lit up Moda Center with 33 attempts Wednesday, making 12. Juxtaposed against Minnesota’s meek 3-for-11 effort, you’ve basically got the point differential of the Wolves’ 116-91 loss wrapped up in one stat (Portland outscored Minnesota by 27 behind the 3-point line).
Just like the pass-first NFL or the infield-shift MLB, the new NBA wave is encompassed by good 3-point shooting complemented by aggressiveness going to the rim. Kirk Goldsberry of Grantland wrote about basketball’s future in an analytics piece earlier this season where he explained how Houston Rockets superstar James Harden signifies the new archetype of the ideal NBA player. Harden, and the Rockets as a whole, shoot 3-pointers like they’re getting paid by the attempt. At 33 attempts per game, they are nearly six ahead of the next closest team. On the other end of the spectrum, they are last in the NBA in attempts between 15-19 feet, as well as 10-14 feet. Therefore, their season’s shot chart features a notable chasm between at-the-rim attempts and beyond-the-arc attempts.
Shane Young of hoopshabit.com took an in-depth look at the league’s new playing style in an early-March article. Within the story, Young posted snapshots of which teams were taking the highest percentage of mid-range shots. If you glance at the list below, you’ll see the Wolves positioned fourth at the time of the article, which used a significant sample size at the four-month juncture of the season. Minnesota is surrounded by inferiority on this totem pole: Knicks, Lakers, Hornets, Pacers. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that many of the league’s worst teams are taking the most mid-range jumpers.
Now examine the bottom half of the same list. Potentially the top two seeds from each conference (Hawks, Cavs, Warriors, Rockets) are ranked between 25-30, with the Rockets naturally an extreme outlier at only 10 percent of mid-range shots taken.
The teams at the bottom of this list are floor-spreaders. They play a wide-open, up-and-down game that is based around the ol’ drive-and-dish methodology; causing the defense to collapse, then kicking it to the perimeter. There are lots of assists to be had in this style of play, which is why the NBA’s two No. 1 seeds – Golden State and Atlanta – lead the NBA in helpers.
The Timberwolves don’t have a Steph Curry or a Kyle Korver like the Warriors or Hawks. They also lost their sharpshooting power forward Kevin Love in the offseason, who accounted for nearly 30 percent of 3-point attempts in 2013-14.
But they’ve also got stacks of young talent at malleable stages of their careers. And in a throwaway season, wouldn’t it have made sense to let them groom their 3-point game? Not in Flip’s house. Since Saunders took over for Rick Adelman as coach, the Wolves have decreased their percentage of 3-points shots taken by 6.8 percent (based on last year’s totals). Granted, injuries have played a role, but the top 3-point “attempter” on this year’s squad is Kevin Martin, who has only played in 36 games. He is 121st in the NBA with 183 attempts. For perspective, there are 43 players in the league who have attempted 300 or more.
But it’s not just that sheer volume is low because potential 3-point gunners have been hurt. Point guards Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine are only attempting two 3-pointers per game, which puts them on par with the lower half of the league’s back-up point guards. Shabazz Muhammad never appeared to have the green light from downtown, even though he shot nearly 40 percent in limited attempts. Of the top 30 small forwards in the NBA, only Otto Porter Jr., and Giannis Antetokounmpo attempt fewer 3-point shots per game than Andrew Wiggins (hence the reason this article is being written in the first place).
But the really incriminating evidence is Corey Brewer, who was traded to trigger-happy Houston mid-season. Brewer shot 1.7 3-pointers per game in 24 appearances with Minnesota at just a 19.5 percent success rate. With Houston, where he’s been permitted to shoot 3.6 per game, Brewer is hitting nearly 30 percent of his longballs. Much like current Houston coach Kevin McHale did with Kevin Love in their brief coach-player relationship in Minnesota, McHale promotes confidence in 3-point shooting and gets the most out of marginal marksmen like Brewer.
Saunders’ old Wolves teams weren’t liberal 3-point shooters either. From 1999 until 2005, the year Saunders was fired, the Wolves sat in the league’s bottom 10 for 3-point attempts. That was justifiable, however, because it was a different era. The league is changing now that analytics have shown the advantages of shooting a slightly more difficult shot that’s worth three points versus a mid-range shot worth two points. The Wolves are attempting the sixth most shots league-wide between 10-19 feet, but they are making fewer than 40 percent of those attempts — only a few percentage points better than than their 3-point shooting, in fact.
Steve McPherson of A Wolf Among Wolves spoke with ESPN analyst David Thorpe about Saunders’ comments, and Thorpe couldn’t disagree more with the coach’s opinion. “Not being a 3-point shooter seems to be ignoring what looks like a pretty strong skillset for [Wiggins],” said Thorpe. “I’m only guessing what Saunders may have meant, but he’s also a little old school.”
Old school. Sounds familiar. The team’s apparent aversion to the acceptance of advanced stats feels a lot like the stubborn Twins with sabermetrics or Mike Zimmer with Pro Football Focus.
Once again, the way we’ve always done it wins out over the way it should be done.
Sam Ekstrom is a staff writer for Cold Omaha at 105 The Ticket and a play-by-play broadcaster in Burnsville, Minn. Hear him on 105 The Ticket Sunday mornings from 8-10 a.m. on “The Wake Up Call.” Follow him on Twitter @SamEkstrom for further insights.