Written By Brandon Warne
If expectations are tempered for this version of the Minnesota Twins, it’s not necessarily a reflection of the likely roster that’ll open the season in Detroit on April 6. Well, in some senses it is, but the general perception is also that the American League Central is the best division in the junior circuit, and that all four teams ahead of the Twins have either improved greatly or were very good to begin with.
That’s a pretty glum sentiment for the 2015 Twins, who likely have as much young talent as anyone else in the division but appear to be a year or two from putting it all together.
That doesn’t mean that a last-place Twins team this season — should it happen — needs to lose 90 or 100 games. Similarly, it doesn’t mean it can’t be a competitive team that’s in the thick of things — relatively speaking — as school starts up again in the fall.
But that could tangibly mean 75 wins. Not 90 losses, but not terribly far from it either. Still, that mark would be construed as progress, and a strong second half — something foreign to this era’s Twins teams — could go a long way toward rolling into the 2016 season with some significant steam.
The entire AL is a wild card this season. The generally accepted best teams in the league at this exact second are Toronto, Seattle and Cleveland.
Funny. None of those teams played in the playoffs last year.
The entire league is bonkers. Detroit should still be pretty good. Oakland always finds a way. Some folks believe the Angels are the most talented team in the league. Boston made a ton of moves. Nobody ever counts out the Yankees. Baltimore is getting Manny Machado and Matt Wieters back.
If that feels a bit daunting for the local nine to compete with, maybe it is. But what can the Twins do to overachieve and perhaps reset the general fan sentiment around the area?
There are a few things:
- Joe Mauer does Joe Mauer things.
Mauer’s 2014 season (.277/.361/.371) looked an awful lot like his injury-marred 2011 (.287/.360/.368). What makes a bounceback difficult is that coming off 2011 he was still going to be just 29; this time he turns 32 in the season’s second week. Being on the wrong side of 30 decreases the likelihood of rebound incrementally, and that’s before considering if there’s any permanent damage from his litany of previous injuries.
But that isn’t to put a damper on Mauer’s chance on the whole. When Mauer returned from the oblique injury he looked a lot more like vintage Joe. Post-oblique, Mauer hit .289/.397/.408; pre-injury he hit .271/.342/.353. That’s a huge difference, and if he can replicate that first split he should be able to regain a fair amount of the value sapped from his bat moving forward. He’s still not going to be a prototypical first baseman, but if he can be a John Olerud clone, the Twins will be happy with that.
- Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana become the stoppers of this rotation, Kyle Gibson steps up as the No. 3, and Ricky Nolasco finds his old self in year two of the AL.
The phrasing is probably more rooted in broadcaster-speak than it is analytics, but oftentimes you’ll hear of a pitcher being a “stopper” — that is, a guy who’ll go out and give you a quality start to stop a losing stretch. Most likely that was the expectation with Nolasco, who pitched miserably in his first season in the Twin Cities. Fortunately, he’s no higher than third — and perhaps fourth — on that totem pole as the Twins prepare for this season. The biggest improvement for the Twins rotation is that Santana is a huge upgrade to the likes of Mike Pelfrey — still ‘technically’ in the running for the No. 5 spot — and Kevin Correia. Every single one of the first four starters in the rotation will have upside for the first time in quite some time.
Last year the Twins ranked 29th in quality starts with 66. Adding Santana (19) in place of Correia (14) and Pelfrey (zero in limited work) should go a long way into improving this bunch.
- Aaron Hicks takes the center field job and doesn’t relinquish it all season.
A technical aside to this would be Torii Hunter not only mentoring Hicks but holding up his end of the bargain in right field. But any growth from Hicks — whose only discernible skill to this point, two years in, is drawing walks — can be considered surplus value off the $10.5 million salary Hunter is going to draw and likely not quite hold up on his own. That’s just the facts on a guy that’s going to be 40 during the season and has seen his play in right field fall off considerably. But if Hunter can help Hicks unlock whatever he still holds within — and the Twins still believe that’s a considerable amount — then it’s a huge coup for the club. For Hicks to find that success he needs to continue drawing those walks, but also tightening up his play in center and driving the baseball just enough to get to maybe a .240/.350/.375 batting line. That isn’t enough to hold off Byron Buxton forever, but it’s at least a step in the right direction and, to be frank, a pretty big jump. The defense should be the easiest part, as it’s something Hunter can help him with, and it’s a trait Hicks has not only shown in the minors but also flashed at times in the majors. He just needs to smooth it out a bit.
- The front end of the bullpen tightens up.
To the untrained eye the bullpen numbers aren’t particularly scary from the Twins last season. But when considering what relievers on the whole did last year, the achievement curve is pretty steep. This is what theAVERAGE American League reliever did last year:
3.63 ERA
8.3 K/9
44.7 percent groundball rate
The ERA is hard to compare because a single-reliever sample is hard to compare to the aggregate on the whole, especially since the whole group accounts for nearly 7,500 innings and thus is pretty much regressed across the board. So while single reliever ERA can be misleading — one bad outing can ruin a month, or so — you get the idea that the average reliever is really, really good these days. Like somewhere in between a Glen Perkins and a Casey Fien.
Yikes.
Adding Tim Stauffer helps, but for the front-end of the bullpen to truly improve, it’ll likely need to come from within as guys like Nick Burdi and Jake Reed make their way up to the big club — perhaps as early as this season. Additionally, rotation fallout could find itself manning the front of the bullpen in the likes of Pelfrey, Tommy Milone or even Trevor May. Milone doesn’t have the classic reliever profile — though his stuff could play up a la Brian Duensing — but May and Pelfrey could be really interesting as power relievers who could ratchet up the bullpen hierarchy given they have success and there is opportunity.
What is clear, however, is that things really should change for the bullpen in one way or another. The Twins simply can’t have the ‘pen throwing 500 innings year in and year out, and that’s where the improved rotation comes into play. Sometimes fixing a problem is as easy as fixing the surroundings, and it’s clear that at least for now that’s what the Twins are hoping for.
Notice none of these are off-the-wall, insane ideas. Nobody is suggesting Alex Meyer comes up and pitches like a Cy Young candidate. Buxton and Miguel Sano don’t need to be the saviors of this offense — yet. Improvements — both big and small — made in numerous areas should make this a markedly better ballclub, and that should show not only in the first half, but in a stronger second-half showing than has been evident the past couple seasons.