Written By Tom Schreier
He’s right at the stage of his career where he’s ready to take off.
— Wild GM Chuck Fletcher after inking Dubnyk to a six-year, $26 million extension, 6/27/15
Devan Dubnyk’s most recent contract isn’t anything new for the Minnesota Wild, as general manager Chuck Fletcher tends to weed out the guys he likes and then lock them in long-term. Zach Parise and Ryan Suter were the two biggest names in free agency back in 2012, and the Wild signed them both to matching $98 million contracts through 2025. Mikko Koivu is signed through 2018. The young corps of Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella and Charlie Coyle were given job security in exchange for team-friendly terms that run through 2021 for Brodin and 2020 for Scandella and Coyle.
Fletcher didn’t draft Dubnyk, of course, but he did spot him as a plug for a need in net when both Darcy Kuemper and Niklas Backstrom were showing their age. Kuemper, currently 25, appeared too young to handle the rigors of being a full-time starter in the NHL, and Backstrom, 37, showed signs of aging, while Dubnyk, drafted No. 14 overall in 2004 by the Edmonton Oilers, is currently 29 — right around the time that goaltenders are at their best. Unlike forwards, who tend to peak early and struggle as they near 30, goalies are more likely to play well later in their careers: Manny Fernandez, Dwayne Roloson and even Backstrom are local examples of netminders that played their best after their mid-20’s, and Tim Thomas, Jonathan Quick and Antti Niemi are national cases.
Because the Wild didn’t draft Dubnyk, his contract extension is more akin to the signing of Parise and Suter than the re-upping of younger players like Brodin, Scandella and Coyle. Fletcher and the Wild brass are getting value with the young players, something they should do with Mikael Granlund and Jason Zucker in the near future, while allowing for team chemistry to build by keeping the same personalities in the locker room. Dubnyk’s name certainly doesn’t carry the same weight as Parise or Suter, but his role is that of a cornerstone player on a championship team — Parise is the dominant two-way forward, Suter is the lock-down defenseman and Dubnyk is the No. 1 goaltender.
Teams pay dearly for reliable goaltending, so Fletcher had two options: sign Dubnyk to a short-term, high-cap-hit deal, or spread the money out across multiple seasons. The first option is not viable, because the Wild are already pressed against the cap. And while the second one brings risk, it’s a risk most GMs across the league are willing to take to potentially secure a franchise goaltender. “If you look at the top-20 goalies in terms of salary, I don’t know if any of them have less than five years. It’s a market contract,” Fletcher said after inking Dubnyk. “The salary will put him somewhere between the top-23 and 24 goalies in the league. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable number for what he’s done. It’s a fair contract.”
The question then becomes: Was last season a fluke, or is Dubnyk the real deal? Fletcher and the Wild don’t expect him to replicate his performance from last year for the next six seasons, that’s probably not humanly possible. Rather they see him as a cog in their machine. It’s a machine that is created by signing marquee free agents and drafting and developing talent and locking those players into long-term deals at team-friendly prices. It’s the way to win in a mid-sized market like the Twin Cities and in a sport that requires strong chemistry between teammates.
The elephant in the room here is Koivu. He plays a different position than Dubnyk, and as a forward, is on a different time frame — as mentioned earlier, forwards tend to be more productive at an earlier age, where goaltenders usually are better in their mid-20’s or later — but the same concept applies. When he signed a 7-year, $47.25 million extension in July of 2010, Koivu was a player that made everyone better, an asset in the negotiations with Parise and Suter because he played his position so well, and unquestionably deserved the captainship.
At age 32, however, Koivu’s production has slipped and people outside the locker room are beginning to think that Parise deserves the ‘C.’ He grew up in Bloomington, captained the U.S. team in the Olympics and is the most outspoken member of the locker room. Speaking to players on and off the record last year, it is my understanding that the team stands by Koivu as their captain, and that the leadership group as a unit is perfectly functional. Koivu, Parise and Suter all lead in their own way, and Pominville, a team captain when he was with the Buffalo Sabres, essentially wears an invisible letter on his chest and plays an important role in mentoring the younger players as well.
In essence, it becomes a numbers game with Koivu. Take away his cap hit, and it’s perfectly reasonable for a second- or third-line center — which is essentially what Koivu is at this point — to be the team captain. As long as his voice carries weight in the locker room and he’s good with the young players, there’s no need for him to be a superstar in order to lead. But because he no longer has the production of a first-line center — Granlund has been playing with Parise and Pominville on the top line — his $6.75 million cap hit becomes something of concern for the team. His cap hit is higher than that of everyone but Parise and Suter and is taking up cap space that could be used to re-sign Granlund and Zucker or add a premier goal-scorer in free agency.
As long as his numbers don’t decline too much, however, there’s no reason to complain about Koivu’s cap hit. It’s wise for Fletcher and his people to lock in the players that they like, and hindsight is 20/20. Some players will be overpaid and others underpaid, but the key is to have a balance of both. The Wild are achieving balance in that regard by locking their young players into long-term, team-friendly contracts, allowing them to take more risks in free agency.
As far as Dubnyk is concerned, he’s a player who performed well in Minnesota, had some decent years in Edmonton despite playing on undermanned teams, and plays a vital position for a team’s success. His contract isn’t messing with the cap space too much, and he’s not being paid so much that he couldn’t be a backup or split time with another goaltender in the final two years of his pact.
It really comes down to where the team goes from here. The first order of business, other than signing Granlund, should be seeing if they could unload Backstrom. There’s no reason to carry three goalies, and Kuemper, as the younger player with NHL experience (and his fair share of success), has the most value for the Wild. He could be groomed under Dubnyk, who has a similar build, and get playing time when he needs a break in order to prepare for a more serious role in years to come. The problem is that he’s the more valuable commodity in this situation, as few teams are going to have interest in the aging Backstrom and many will be willing to gamble on Kuemper thinking they can can get something out of the young goaltender in the near future.
It’s easy to panic any time a team signs a player to a long-term deal, but Dubnyk is worth the risk, at least in Fletcher’s mind. “He’s 29 years old. He’s entering the prime of his career. He’s had some good seasons in Edmonton and had a great season this year,” said Fletcher. “We’re not asking him to duplicate what he did this year every year. Maybe that’s not realistic, but we believe he can be a good goaltender in this league. He’s right at the stage of his career where he’s ready to take off.”
Ultimately, is better that a GM goes all-in with the guys he likes in lieu of having a rotating cast of characters every year in order to buy time on the job. Whether or not it works out is on Fletcher, but at least in terms of philosophy, he’s doing things the right way. Dubnyk is the guy he wanted, he went out and got him, and now it’s on all parties involved to go and make sure that they can take things to the next level in the upcoming season.
Tom Schreier writes for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha. Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports.