DEZELSKE: Fantasy Football 2015 Draft Strategy

Written By Brian Dezelske

I’m back, everybody! I slowly grew on the Cold Omaha crew like foot fungus over the course of the last NFL season, and when they realized there wasn’t enough ‘Tough Actin’ Tinactin in the world to get rid of me, they decided to bring me back for yet another year of fantasy football shenanigans.

Starting now I’ll have all your fantasy football needs covered each and every week, until the end of the football season.

To kick things off, I’m going to dive into most everybody’s favorite part of fantasy football — the draft! Draft strategy should be the No. 1 priority, as we draw closer to our respective extravaganzas. Having a sound game plan going in can literally mean the difference between making the playoffs and cutting a check to your commissioner with “League Donation” scribbled in the Memo.

So what strategy will help keep you from being your league’s doormat? The answer actually depends on a variety of factors such as scoring format, draft position and who’s already off the board when it’s time to make a selection. To make things easy, I’ll be breaking down strategy based on a 12-team standard-scoring format. This will also help with 10-team leagues as well.

Here we go.

RB-RB Strategy

The most widely used strategy is simply plucking two running backs with your first two picks, and it works best for owners who are drafting in the upper half of the first round.

Why?

The answer is simply supply and demand. The number of carries for RBs continues to slide in the wrong direction every year, launching the demand for the small number of guys who do garner 15+ carries each week through the roof.

The 2014 season is a perfect example of this transformation on the field. There were 13 running backs who averaged at least 15 carries per game (minimum six games played), while there were six gunslingers with at least 600 pass attempts. Conversely, there were 20 RBs that averaged 15 carries in 2009, and not one single QB threw 600 passes.

This trend forces owners to try predicting touches rather than carries, which is much harder to do, (just ask 2014 Shane Vereen owners), and puts a huge premium on a position where owners are generally starting two guys, and possibly a third in a flex role.

The problem owners run into when using this strategy is knowing where to draw the line. After picks 1.05/1.06, those elite RBs are already off the board. So if you’re picking in the latter part of Round 1, there may be alternatives that will better suit your chances of maximizing your selection.

WR-WR Strategy

A strategy that can be very effective, especially in PPR leagues, is the WR-WR strategy. This usually gets implemented, and is most effective, in the second half of Round 1 when those five top backs have fallen off the board. In 10- and 12-team leagues, the prime positions to give this strategy a shot would be picks 1.07-1.09. These positions are great because owners should have no problem landing themselves two elite pass catchers.

Here’s a look at what I’m talking about from an ADP standpoint:

Antonio Brown is widely considered the No. 1 fantasy option at the receiver position. If he fell to you at either 1.07 or 1.08, the chances you’d be able to pair him up with the likes of Calvin Johnson are really good if you take a look at where Megatron’s ADP currently has him going in mocks. Obviously Johnson had a down year in 2014, but he is still Megatron, and there will be a definite bounce back this season.

The potential for landing two Top-5 fantasy WRs in these spots are much greater than settling for a ball carrier from the next tier of players and hoping he finds his way into that upper-echelon RB1 category.

One caveat to the WR-WR strategy is that owners must be willing to change philosophies on a dime. If, for some reason, one of those running backs happens to slip to you, by all means snag that guy and pair him up with the best available pass-catching option with your next pick. In a perfect world, that’s the scenario you’re looking for. That being said, if you’re not willing to change things up during your draft, you’ll most likely find yourself at or near the bottom of your league.

Late-Round QB Strategy

Something I touched on earlier was the airshow philosophy that the NFL has adopted in the past few years. What this has created is a plethora of options to choose from at the quarterback position. It’s flooded the position to the point where meshing the late-round QB strategy with what we’ve already been talking about is the best way to maximize your return on investment.

Big Ben is a prime example of how the late-round QB strategy can work:

Look at the difference in 2014 ADPs between Rodgers and Roethlisberger. Now compare that to their total fantasy points for last year. All the heat is on Rodgers and Luck, while Roethlisberger’s average point differential was a mere 2.98 PPG behind fantasy’s top scorer and likely won’t waver far from that this year. That’s not a big number and can be countered by loading up on the RB and WR positions early on.

Now obviously Big Ben’s current ADP is much higher than the previous year, but he’s just an example. There are other QB’s that will wind up being drafted late and end up being key components to a fantasy owner’s success.

A number of owners in your league will rush to get their hands on one of the No. 12s early on. Don’t fall into that trap. Just stock up on running backs and pass catchers, knowing there’s no rush to fill this position when an obscene amount of QB value is waiting for you in the later rounds. That’s simply too good to pass up, and a smart fantasy GM never will.

I encourage everyone to chime in and voice their opinions. Hit me up on Twitter. I love the banter. It’s what makes fantasy football exciting. Check out the Cold Omaha page throughout the NFL preseason for my latest draft rankings.

Brian Dezelske is the host of Cold Omaha’s Ticket Fantasy Podcast, which you can catch here on 105TheTicket.com. He’s also the Cold Omaha fantasy football contributor on 105 The Ticket. Before that he was a contributor to Bruno Boys Fantasy Football, and was also a featured columnist with Bleacher Report covering the Minnesota Vikings. Follow him on Twitter @BrianDezelske.