Written by Tom Schreier
We all remember when we traded (Wilson) Ramos for Matt Capps, we thought we had a chance to get into the World Series. Matt Capps was a good addition, and we gave up a big name.
— Twins GM Terry Ryan reflecting on the trade, 7/10/15
After the Minnesota Twins fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with his predecessor, Terry Ryan, in November of 2011, Ryan knew that he had quite the task ahead of him. “We’ve got a lot of work to do,” he said. “…but I think we’ve got people intact that we can get this going back to where it was prior to the 2011 season.”
For all intents and purposes, the Twins are back there, or at least headed in the right direction. It seems like ages ago they were winning division titles and considered a model mid-market franchise — that’s what four losing seasons does to a club’s reputation. And while the Twins have always been first-class in terms of how they treat their own employees, the fans and media, they essentially went from potentially becoming the St. Louis Cardinals North to a bottom feeder over the course of a year.
Ryan didn’t mince words when he took over in 2007. “If we’d have won 94 games [last season], I wouldn’t be sitting here,” he said. “I didn’t want Bill Smith’s job. He knows it. I don’t like the way it happened, but, unfortunately, here we are.”
It wasn’t simply bad luck that led to the 2011 collapse, however, as confirmed by the three 90-loss seasons that preceded Smith’s firing, but rather a series of poor trades that manifested themselves a year after the Twins opened Target Field. Smith traded Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young, Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, and dumped J.J. Hardy for two players that never surfaced with the Twins.
Ever since the collapse, Minnesota has needed high-end pitching, a shortstop and a catcher. Garza is a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Hardy and Bartlett are shortstops. And Ramos is a catcher.
“Smith did reasonably well at the margins, but failed on the franchise-altering moves and that’s not a recipe for long-term success,” wrote infamous blogger Aaron Gleeman, noting that Jim Thome and Orlando Cabrera were smart, cheap pickups and trades for Carl Pavano and Jim Rauch worked out well, as did the original trade with the Milwaukee Brewers for Hardy. “By contrast, Ryan thrived with big-picture moves like adding star-caliber building blocks outside of free agency and squeezing unseen value out of veteran-for-prospect trades, but struggled with small stuff like surrounding those building blocks with washed-up veterans.
“Ryan’s weakness was annoying. Smith’s weakness was crippling.”
In an alternate universe, the Twins have an infield of Plouffe, Hardy, Dozier, Mauer, with Ramos catching and Garza and Hughes as a one-two punch at the top of the rotation. Right now, the team has to either hope Eduardo Nunez takes over the shortstop position in the second half or that Jorge Polanco or Nick Gordon develop rapidly and assume the position in the near future. Kurt Suzuki has regressed to his usual production at the plate (.235/.291/.313) after being named an All-Star last season, in a contract year, and is having trouble throwing runners out. Josmil Pinto, who showed some promise as a hitting catcher in the past two seasons, has been hampered with concussion issues this season.
The pitching rotation is stronger this year, and a major reason why the Twins are within striking distance of the Kansas City Royals for the AL Central title. But who would they trot out in a one-game playoff scenario? Kyle Gibson, a top prospect who is playing well this year but probably isn’t a true ace yet? Phil Hughes, who had a career year last year but has come back to earth this season? Or Mike Pelfrey, who started out hot after an initial demotion to the bullpen, but has been more erratic lately? Ervin Santana won’t be available due to his suspension, it likely won’t be Tommy Milone, and Trevor May is currently in the bullpen.
“I’m not sure you need a true No. 1 to get to the postseason,” Ryan said after signing Santana in December, noting that Hughes has ace potential. “We have not had a true No. 1 in many of those years that we got there, so if you’ve got the five solid, you’ve got a pretty good chance to get there, and then let the playoffs dictate exactly where you’re headed.”
It’s a critical decision, because if the Twins were to make the playoffs this year, it would likely be as a Wild Card team. There’s a chance, however unlikely, that the Twins win the Central this year: The Royals were 4.5 games ahead of them entering the All-Star Break, the Detroit Tigers won it the last four years, and the Cleveland Indians have a stellar rotation and an underachieving lineup. Only the Chicago White Sox — who are the subject of trade rumors right now — look to be down and out, but in truth they’re right about where the Tigers and Indians are now.
If there is one thing that prevents the Twins from reaching the playoffs this year, it might not be the holes at shortstop or catcher — which are occupied Nunez and Suzuki, as well as Eduardo Escobar and Eric Fryer — but rather the bullpen. Glen Perkins has been perfect so far, and Casey Fien has held down the eighth-inning role over the past few years, but after that things have been a bit shaky.
Aaron Thompson, sensational in the first two-plus months of the season, has been sent down. Blaine Boyer, 33, has rejuvenated his career in many ways but has showed signs of slowing down lately. Brian Duensing, 32, went through a rough stretch. Ryan O’Rourke, who came up to replace Thompson, is stellar against lefties but pedestrian against righties and is unproven in the major leagues. Ryan Pressly, who has good stuff, is injured. Trevor May probably should be in the rotation — if there wasn’t a logjam — and could spend some time in Rochester as a starter. And J.R. Graham is a Rule 5 pick that plays more of a long relief role.
If the team starts having trouble getting the ball to Perkins, or Perkins gets injured, the Twins may be tempted to trade a prospect in order to get help in the bullpen. That’s where things get a bit scary for people who remember the Capps-for-Ramos trade all too well. “No one has any regrets on that to this day,” says Ryan. After a brief pause, he adds a qualifier: “inside this organization.”
Fans may be tempted to see Oswaldo Arcia traded if it brings in bullpen help, but that very well could be the next Ramos-for-Capps deal. Remember: Arcia had 20 home runs last year in the big leagues. Eventually, as the team solidifies, they will wisely start to trade prospects to fill major league holes. On that note, packaging a few prospects for help at shortstop or catcher would be smart, assuming they get a quality player in return.
As for the bullpen, placing Meyer and May in relief roles may help shore up needs there. If prospects Zack Jones and Nick Burdi can turn things around, they could become options as well, as could mid-20s minor leaguers Lester Oliveros and Michael Tonkin. The bottom line is that in-house is a better option for the relief roles than looking to the outside. Keep in mind, Glen Perkins was on the roster when Joe Nathan went down.
Before anyone freaks out, the Twins realize this year is different from 2010, when they had a new ballpark and were coming off a series of underwhelming first-round exits. “This team’s in a little different spot, yeah. This team is a little different than that ballclub,” says Ryan. “We had a very talented club that year, and we had thought we had a chance to go all the way, and we lost Nathan. And Bill and Gardy and the group, and I was part of that group, we decided, ‘Okay, we’re all in. Let’s go.’
“It didn’t work out, unfortunately. But nonetheless it was a decision we made. We gave up a pretty darn good young prospect that was controllable for a lot of years. That’s the choices that organizations make, and some work and some don’t.”
The key, of course, is to learn from that trade, and others like it, and move on. It’s a new era of Twins baseball, and nobody wants to relive the last four years.
Tom Schreier writes for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha. Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports.