Written by Tom Schreier
Let’s talk about him a year from now. You’ve seen what’s happened to a few other guys that have come up here, and it just didn’t work out the second go-round. Let’s get a year under a couple of these guys’ belts before we start sending out those accolades.
— Twins GM Terry Ryan discussing Sano’s early success on Thursday
When Minnesota Twins rookie Miguel Sano struck out three times against David Price in the Detroit Tigers game Thursday night, it almost came as a surprise given how well he had played in the first week of his career. He entered the contest hitting above .400, was drawing walks and looked in control every time he got to the plate. “It looks like that bat’s definitely ready to click up here,” said manager Paul Molitor.
It wasn’t just Sano’s ability to rip the cover off the ball — his hits have reportedly reached over 110 mph coming off the bat — but he’s shown the patience to draw walks in key situations, including with the bases loaded against the Baltimore Orioles. Opposing pitchers are already starting to pitch around him, and even his line drives that are caught for an out look impressive. He’s a large man, although the Twins are being coy about how large. “Talk to me. I’m right here,” said Ryan when asked about how much the 22 year old, who is listed at 260 pounds, weighed. Then, when asked to give a number, or even a range, he said, “I’m not gonna tell you.”
Baseball has become a young man’s game. Many of Major League Baseball’s biggest names — Mike Trout, Bryce Harper — are under 25, and just over 30 players in the upcoming All-Star Game are 27 or younger, which includes names like Clayton Kershaw, Jose Altuve and Giancarlo Stanton. Of course there are plenty of players in their late-20’s, early-30’s that are still stars — Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen, David Price — but there is a substantial youth movement in the game, and people are recognizing it. “I don’t think it’s a cycle,” he says. “I think this is something closer to the norm, because it’s been happening over the last couple of years. This isn’t just one year. Last year it was George Springer and those guys, and now here comes another different crew.”
It would seem peculiar, then, that Ryan would be downplaying the success of his own player. Sure, it’s smart for a general manager to protect the youngest guys in his clubhouse, but Sano does not appear to be a headcase of any sort, and he has had a great start to his rookie season.
There is precedent for young players hitting the rookie wall, however, especially with the Twins. Kennys Vargas and Danny Santana hit surprisingly well last season but have struggled at the plate this year and were sent down. Oswaldo Arcia hit 34 home runs in his first two major league seasons but was optioned to Triple-A off the disabled list after playing in only 19 games this year. Eddie Rosario hit a home run off of the first pitch he saw but has seen his batting average drop from around .300 in late May, early June to around .260 recently.
This is the nature of player development. Few prospects are called up to the major leagues and remain there for the rest of their career. Byron Buxton, once considered the best prospect in baseball, had trouble hitting sliders before he was placed in the 15-day disabled list. Aaron Hicks bounced between Triple-A and the majors before his recent hot streak. Even Torii Hunter was sent up and down in his early 20’s before becoming a full-time major leaguer in 2001 at age 25.
The general pattern with Twins prospects is the players that are known for their bat stick around longer in their first stint and look better, but see their production slow down over the course of time as more major league teams get film on them. Once the advanced scouts find a weakness and relay it to their coaching staff, and ultimately their pitchers, it takes a while for the hitter to adjust, and that often means a demotion to Triple-A to sort things against lesser competition.
Conversely, players that are better defensively may look worse because they are having trouble at the plate, but they are able to offer something to the team by being a defensive plug at a key position. Pedro Florimon played in 210 games over the past three years despite only hitting .205/.266/.300 over the course of his Twins career. Clete Thomas played over 100 games in a Twins uniform and hit .208/.280/.305. Hicks hit .192/.259/.338 in 81 games his rookie year. “Hicks has always been a good fielder,” Ryan said in late May. “Two years ago he could field, last year he could field, this year he could field — I don’t see any difference in him. I think he’s more confident with the bat, but I don’t see any difference in his defense.”
“For me, playing good defense is what keeps you in the lineup,” Hicks said after a game on May 27, at which point he was hitting .240/.269/.320. “If I’m able to do that, and also get hits combined with that, it’s a plus. I feel like I’ve been swinging the bat well, just haven’t had that much luck with where the guys have been positioned, but that’s stuff you can’t control.”
Often with defensive players it’s a matter of perception. It’s hard to forget the 20 home runs Arcia hit last year, especially the ones that threaten to leave the park over the gate in right field. But the .040 average Hicks had as a leadoff hitter in his rookie year tends to stand out more than the highlight reel grabs he had.
Buxton has already displayed plenty of speed and hasn’t been a hazard in the outfield, but he is not as polished of a hitter as Sano is — or at least was in his first week. Sano isn’t chasing sliders in the dirt; Buxton is. Sano can hit a ball into another area code; Buxton likely can’t, or at least won’t as frequently. Sano posted a .400 average on the big board at Target Field during his first week; Buxton didn’t. But it’s hard to say Sano has been that much better than Buxton, or any of the team’s other top prospects. Not enough time has passed.
Sano’s three-strikeout night is a harsh reminder that baseball is a humbling game and even the players with the most talent will have periods tough games like that. “He’s been really doing a good job of recognizing off-speed pitches and using the whole field and all those things,” said Molitor after the game. “He hit a bullet to center field the one time he got a pitch he could handle, but the change-up he couldn’t quite stay back far enough, and every time he’d go to swing the thing would disappear on him, so he got a steady diet of those.”
Without a doubt Sano possesses athletic ability few people in the world have, but there’s still a learning curve for him, and at some point he may have to go back to the minors again. That’s just the evolution of a player, and why Twins fans shouldn’t shoo guys like Vargas, Arcia and Santana out of town just yet. “It’s about becoming a player that’s more of a complete player, and to see him understand the value of a good at-bat, taking a walk, situational hitting, moving runners, all speaks to the maturity that he has developed over the past couple years,” Molitor said of Sano before Thursday’s game. “Now, you try to temper that with the fact that it’s only been a handful of games up here, but we’re showing confidence, we’re putting him in a big position in the lineup, and so far he’s responded really well.”
Tom Schreier writes for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha. Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports.