Written By Sam Ekstrom
It’s an unhealthy obsession for sports fanatics out there: Feeling the need to project a team’s final roster. Whether it’s baseball’s 25-man, hockey’s 23-man, basketball’s 15-man or, in this case, football’s 53-man final roster, there comes great satisfaction in putting together educated guesses for which players will comprise your team of interest when they take the field for the first time.
I attempted this with the Vikings last year and had mixed results. In my first projection of 2014, written before the first preseason game, I correctly predicted 45 of the final 53 roster spots but only aced two position groups: quarterback and specialists; probably the two easiest.
Frankly, it’s no special skill to get 90 percent of the final roster correct; it’s the final tenth that makes things tricky. A least one veteran expected to be a lock ends up being cut – like Fred Evans last year. And late-round long-shots like Shamar Stephen may end up popping in preseason to secure a spot.
With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s the pre-training camp projection of the Vikings’ 53-man roster.
(Projected Starters in Bold)
QUARTERBACKS (3)
QB Teddy Bridgewater
QB Shaun Hill
QB Taylor Heinecke
Bridgewater starts. Hill backs him up. The only debate is between Old Dominion’s Taylor Heinecke and former Big Ten quarterback Mike Kafka for the third-string spot. Heinecke, who threw 132 touchdowns in four years with Old Dominion, may have a more promising upside than Northwestern’s Kafka.
RUNNING BACKS (3)
RB Adrian Peterson
RB Matt Asiata
RB Jerick McKinnon
Expect the same trio the Vikings ran out Week 1 of last season. Ordinarily I’d include a fullback in this group, but not today. I’ll explain later on.
WIDE RECEIVERS (6)
WR Mike Wallace
WR Charles Johnson
WR Cordarrelle Patterson
WR Jarius Wright
WR Stefon Diggs
WR Adam Thielen
Wide receivers one through five should be locked in. The big question is whether or not a sixth is necessary. Adam Thielen proved himself as an NFL wide receiver last year, as well as an elite special teamer, but the Vikings’ offense isn’t predicated on having great wide receiver depth, rarely sending more than three on the field at once. They also kept just five on last year’s roster. Thielen is a solid commodity, though, and injuries can happen. It might be worth keeping Thielen to avoid the regret of losing him Charles Johnson-style to a savvy waiver-wire-watcher.
TIGHT ENDS (4)
TE Kyle Rudolph
TE MyCole Pruitt
TE Chase Ford
TE Rhett Ellison
Here’s where my no-fullback theory comes to fruition. First, Rudolph is obviously the no. 1 option. His no. 2 is fuzzy, but it’s easier to pencil in rookie MyCole Pruitt because we know he’ll make the team. So then it comes down to Chase Ford or Rhett Ellison … or both.
Ford has proven himself as a viable option in relief of the sneakily-injury-prone Rudolph. He’s a pure pass catcher with great hands and seems like a good bet to stay aboard. But what to do with Ellison? If you remember last August, I wrote about Ellison’s versatility – and positional confusion. Was he a fullback? Was he a tight end? Not even he was sure. He’s played both positions virtually his entire college and pro career. The constant is that he’s a phenomenal blocker and not known for his pass-catching – the characteristics of most fullbacks. The skinny on the fullback position, though, is that it’s just not vital in Norv Turner’s offense. Last year’s fullback Jerome Felton opted out of his contract because he saw a huge reduction in reps last year as a lead blocker. Keeping Ellison gives Turner another tight end option – which he likes – as well as a big-bodied lead blocker if necessary. It’s roster spot efficiency at its finest.
OFFENSIVE LINE (9)
LT Matt Kalil
LG Brandon Fusco
C John Sullivan
RG TJ Clemmings
RT Phil Loadholt
T Tyrus Thompson
T Mike Harris
G David Yankey
G Joe Berger
The “9” next to “Offensive Line” could easily fluctuate, which is the biggest unknown when projecting a large position group like this. Zimmer and Co. might want to bolster the depth after seeing so many linemen go down last season, including two on one play. This particular projection gives a nod to the veterans until the lesser-knowns show they are worthy of nabbing a spot.
Clemmings seems to be the preferred option at right guard, though both guard positions are highly volatile and subject to change, depending on how Fusco reacts to the left side and how the rookies perform. David Yankey, a rookie in terms of playing in real NFL games, could also be a dark horse. Further, this list doesn’t include seventh-round pick Austin Shepherd, Polish giant Babatunde Aiyegbusi or local product Carter Bykowski. The depth positions will be earned at training camp. For now, long-time back-ups Harris and Berger seem to be in line for spots.
DEFENSIVE LINE (8)
DE Everson Griffen
DT Sharrif Floyd
NT Linval Joseph
DE Brian Robison
DE Scott Crichton
DE Danielle Hunter
DT Shamar Stephen
DT Tom Johnson
Barring injury – or maybe until injury is a more realistic phrasing – the D-line has a surefire top eight. The starting four are unlikely to change unless Brian Robison’s pectoral injury is worse than he know. Scott Crichton, another pseudo rookie, Danielle Hunter, a true rookie, and Shamar Stephen, who was impactful as a rookie last year, will join Tom Johnson, who signed a multi-year deal this offseason, in rotational roles. The biggest question is whether sixth-round pick B.J. Dubose gets a spot. The Vikings may not sneak him onto the practice squad if they subject him to waivers.
LINEBACKERS (7)
SLB Anthony Barr
MLB Eric Kendricks
WLB Chad Greenway
SLB Gerald Hodges
MLB Audie Cole
WLB Brandon Watts
WLB Michael Mauti
Once again, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to known entities until everyone gets to Mankato, pads up and starts hitting. Second-round pick Eric Kendricks appears to be a promising prospect as starting middle linebacker, though Audie Cole could be primed for his long-awaited moment in the sun as well. The two on the hot seat are Brandon Watts and Michael Mauti. Watts, being in just his second season, has the advantage of upside, while Mauti may be stuck as a full-time special teamer. The door is open for veteran Casey “Don’t Compare Me To Clay” Matthews and CFLer Brian Peters if they pop in training camp.
One thing to keep in mind, however: With so much nickel defense being played in today’s NFL, there’s less need for linebacking depth, especially at the interior positions.
DEFENSIVE BACKS (10)
CB Terence Newman
CB Xavier Rhodes
CB Captain Munnerlyn
CB Trae Waynes
CB Josh Robinson
CB Jabari Price
S Robert Blanton
S Harrison Smith
S Antone Exum, Jr.
S Andrew Sendejo
While the nickel defense has reduced linebackers’ presence, it’s increased the need for quality defensive backs, which might explain the acquisition of Terence Newman and the drafting of Trae Waynes. Clearly, Zimmer wants two shut-down corners. Josh Robinson and Captain Munnerlyn didn’t cut it last year, and while Munnerlyn is a leading candidate to play in the slot this year, he was injured during mini-camp and may have to fend off the rookie, Waynes, to attain the job. You’ll notice the absence of Marcus Sherels, who may finally see his Vikings tenure come to an end because of a logjam at cornerback and punt returner.
At safety, Robert Blanton was far from stellar in his first year as starter, which means there will be an open competition that I detailed during mini-camp. It’s difficult to envision an obvious replacement for Blanton since Exum played sparingly as a rookie, Sendejo has never started except in spot duty and UDFA Anthony Harris has been slow to recover from shoulder surgery. This battle is all but guaranteed to fluctuate with every preseason game.
SPECIALISTS (3)
P Jeff Locke
K Blair Walsh
LS Kevin McDermott
A mild talker at offseason workouts has been the, ahem, riveting long-snapping competition between Cullen Loeffler and Kevin McDermott. Though probably undetectable to the untrained special teams eye, Loeffler struggles at times with spiral and velocity last year, according to special teams coordinator Mike Priefer.
The only rationale for penciling in McDermott at this point is the fact that Loeffler is 34 and McDermott is 25. As was the case with Ryan Longwell and Chris Kluwe, Priefer likes the old guard to pass the torch before they get too withered to carry it.
Sam Ekstrom is a staff writer for Cold Omaha at 105 The Ticket and a play-by-play broadcaster in Burnsville, Minn. Hear him on 105 The Ticket Sunday mornings from 8-11 a.m. on “The Wake Up Call.”