Written By Nicolas Hallett
The last time the Wild signed a goaltender to a long-term, big-money deal was in 2009 when the Wild locked up Niklas Backstrom to a 4-year, $24 million deal. That was a great deal for the Wild as Backstrom earned every penny by being an above average NHL goaltender over the span of the contract.
It was the second contract they gave him in 2013-2014, a 3-year, $10 million deal that has backfired on the team. Backstrom, 37, is breaking down and clearly a shadow of his former self.
The positive side of the Devan Dubnyk deal is that his numbers were incredible last year. His goals against average and save percentage best any totals in either category ever posted by Backstrom, a goaltender that has been nominated for the Vezina trophy and holds the franchise record in wins with 184. Dubnyk was nominated for the Vezina this year, and if he can perform in anyway similar to this breakout season then he’ll be worth the money.
On the other hand, Dubnyk is 29. By the end of this deal he will be 35. Backstrom’s age-based decline started a little before that same time, so the contract is already scary from that end. Plus, Dubnyk will have to maintain ratios and play he’s never constantly showed in the NHL. I mean, the kid lost his backup goaltending job, picked up with Arizona and then was dealt for a third-round pick — no one believed in the former first-round pick turning anything around.
His previous contract was worth $800K, and many presumed it to be quite possibly his last professional contract.
Dubnyk’s new money is a concern because, though the Wild have a decent farm system, this team is expected to win now and appears to need immediate improvement. Dubnyk’s deal leaves the Wild with little to no cap room to work with: $7.8 million according to Spotrac.com. (Meanwhile, Mikael Granlund and the Wild remain in negotiations, thus that number will yet shrink further.)
General manager Chuck Fletcher even felt the need to list a number of caveats when explaining why they were willing to sign Dubnyk to such a risky deal. “He’s 29 years old. He’s entering the prime of his career. He’s had some good seasons in Edmonton and had a great season this year,” Fletcher said. “We’re not asking him to duplicate what he did this year every year. Maybe that’s not realistic, but we believe he can be a good goaltender in this league. He’s right at the stage of his career where he’s ready to take off.”
But even so, Fletcher worked his negotiating magic. Every contract he negotiates leaves you feeling like he won to some degree. This is unlike so many other professional sports contracts where it feels as though the player has their way with the team. For example, Dubnyk’s $4.33 million cap hit will rank 21st among goaltenders next season. The deal is also front-loaded with $5 million in the first four seasons followed by $3.5 million and $2.5 million, making a potential (gulp) buyout more feasible if necessary.
It’s another sentiment from Wild’s front office general that leaves you feeling more comfortable with his decision.
“Believe me, we’ve analyzed this to death. We’ve looked at it every which way and we’re very comfortable with the analytics behind this signing.”
Part of those analytics for the Wild was their goaltending alternative, or lack thereof. This aspect forced the Wild’s hand a bit in this scenario. Dubnyk’s agent was well aware of this and getting his client a solid deal was as easy as following basic negotiating protocol.
The Wild want to contend for Stanley Cups. Only one battle-tested and proven goalie was available on the free agent market: Antti Niemi. Niemi signed with the Dallas Stars on Monday.
That’s it. That was the doom and gloom of Fletcher’s backup plan should he not be able to sign his first-choice backstop. Well, not unless you’ve ever heard of Jhonas Enroth, Michal Neuvirth or Karri Ramo. Slim pickings.
Given the context you can see why the Wild made the decision they did. Still, more than half a decade seems like quite the commitment for a goaltender with this short a track record of success.
Fletcher may have saved Dubnyk’s career when he traded for him in the middle of the season. Now, it’s Fletcher’s career which may be in Dubnyk’s hands.