Written By Sam Ekstrom
The Minnesota Twins starting pitching staff has been remarkably stable – no, not stable; pretty dang good – for the first 70-plus games of the season. Going into Tuesday’s action against the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota sat comfortably in the eighth spot for starters’ ERA league-wide, a shocking standing when one considers how the current staff was assembled, not to mention their abysmal start.
For a short time, the rotation had the look of, well, whatever the opposite of ‘bang for your buck’ is… a flailing swing and a miss, let’s say. The Twins had pledged $58 million to Phil Hughes through 2019; Hughes didn’t win a game in April. They’d committed $37 million to Ricky Nolasco through 2018; Nolasco was injured within the first week. And perhaps the most devastating of all, the Twins signed Ervin Santana for four years, $54 million only to see the staff’s No. 2 arm pinned with an 80-game suspension for PED use.
To summarize: The Twins had nearly $150 million wrapped in their top three pitchers and got as many wins from them in April as this writer – zippo.
As evidenced by the club’s 38-33 record, however, the Twins survived their abominable April with step-up performances from Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey and Trevor May – none of whom were sure they’d even have a rotation spot during spring training. And they’ve gotten help from some usual suspects of late. Predictably, Hughes has stabilized and won five of his last seven decisions by tossing five of seven quality starts. Third-year starter Kyle Gibson hasn’t received much run support this year, but he only allowed six runs in six May starts and has given up more than three earned runs in just three starts all year.
The Twins have stayed more than afloat sans Nolasco and Santana. But the difference between the two veterans is stark. Nolasco’s return, at this point, puts the Twins between a rock and a hard place – somewhere they’ve been far too often in Nolasco’s brief, injury-riddled Twins tenure. At what point is the team’s lavish financial commitment to Nolasco outweighed by the right-hander’s constant struggles?
Santana’s return, on the other hand, is welcomed. “We’ve got a lot invested in the man,” said general manager Terry Ryan before Monday’s game. “He’s got a good track record and unfortunately didn’t get off on the way we’d hoped. Hopefully everything will settle in here and we’ll get starts out of him. Just one more thing that maybe adds to this club’s success.”
Ryan has promised an early July call-up for Santana, who is eligible to pitch again July 4 against the division-leading Royals in Kansas City. While Nolasco – who has begun throwing on flat ground – is unlikely to be reinserted barring an injury, Santana’s Twins debut is a surefire guarantee. Certainly not eager to make any decisions on this issue now, Ryan and manager Paul Molitor are choosing to play the procrastination game. “You kind of compartmentalize decisions that you’re potentially confronted with, and that one has not reached the middle burner yet, much less the front burner,” said Molitor before Tuesday’s action. “We’re looking at it. I kind of have some things set up here, at least until the end of the month, and then sometimes things become a little clearer the closer you get to having to make those decisions.
“But I hope it’s problematic in the sense that it’s gonna be difficult,” Molitor continued, “that someone undeserving might have to find a different role, or something might transpire along those lines. But that would be a good thing, because that would mean that everybody’s kind of holding up their end.”
The window is closing on Ryan and Molitor with a decision now looming within 10 days. The staff ace Hughes will be safe, as will Gibson, the former first round pick. Of Milone, Pelfrey and May, one will likely see a demotion or a role change, and they likely won’t deserve it. Wanna be a GM? This is the nature of the beast.
Let’s walk through the three candidates and try to get a handle on the situation.
MIKE PELFREY: 5-4, 3.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP; Earning $5.5 million; Free agent this offseason
After feeling slighted in spring training when he wasn’t given a rotation spot despite a solid month on March, Pelfrey has reinvented himself in a contract year, as Cold Omaha’s Tom Schreier details here. “I think the best thing is I feel good,” said Pelfrey on June 7. “Obviously my first two years here didn’t go as well as I wanted or anybody else, I guess, but I’m healthy now.” With nine quality starts on the season, the best ERA of any starter on the team and a decent chunk of change attached to his services, Pelfrey seems safe for the time being.
TREVOR MAY: 4-5, 4.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP; Free agent in 2021
Promoted in early April to pitch the Twins’ home opener as a result of Nolasco’s elbow injury, May has made 13 starts and improved steadily in his first full season with the club under the tutelage of pitching coach Neil Allen. He’s also been stellar in June, allowing just five runs in four starts. Perhaps most importantly, the youngster – and centerpiece of the Ben Revere trade – offers something very few other Twins hurlers do: The ability to strike batters out. May’s 65 strikeouts are tops on the team, and his K/BB ratio is second only to Phil Hughes. He’s also maturing game by game. Molitor spoke on June 5 about May’s improved ability to respond to adversity. “We talk about our team being resilient, I think he’s been pretty resilient,” the manager said. “Bad outing, good outing, bad inning, good inning, I think he goes out there able to clean the slate more quickly.”
May is still just 25, though. The powerful right-hander is under team control for the next six years and is by no means firmly established yet at the big league level. But knowing his future is bright and that his stuff has been effective against the big boys, a quick trip east to Rochester likely wouldn’t leave any emotional scars. Any demotion would likely be temporary, too, and there shouldn’t be any shame for a young pitcher like May to move to the side for a seasoned vet like Santana.
If May does happen to get the boot, it probably won’t be for long.
TOMMY MILONE: 4-1, 3.59 ERA, 1.34 WHIP; Earning $2.8 million; Free agent in 2019
The former Athletics pitcher has four consecutive outings of allowing two earned runs or less, plus he is the lone lefty in an otherwise all right-handed starting staff. “Milone has done a nice job of giving us a little bit different look from the left side,” said Ryan before Tuesday’s game. “I’m not going to say who is in and out and everything, but if you’ve got a lefty that’s pretty good.” Milone also pitched in a 2012 pennant race in Oakland, making one very successful postseason start against Detroit. If the Twins intend on competing in September, it wouldn’t hurt to have another battle-tested arm.
The knocks against Milone are that he’s not overpowering, nor is he necessarily a part of the long-term future. At age 28, his ceiling is probably that of a fifth starter, which gives the team less incentive to keep him plugged into the starting rotation. Milone could stay with the team and serve as an effective long reliever – a role that hasn’t been concretely filled since Anthony Swarzak’s departure. He’s also a useful spot starter to stash in Rochester and call up for potential double headers.
Though Ryan offered up compliments about Milone on Tuesday, he also left some doubt regarding his future with a general statement about left-handed pitchers. “I’d rather have five quality righties than just throw a lefty in there to balance things off.”
Milone may be off the bubble in this three-man race, which just goes to show how far the Twins’ pitching has come. Suddenly the team’s biggest dilemma is that they have too much good pitching? Nobody come have fathomed that in April.
Sam Ekstrom is a staff writer for Cold Omaha at 105 The Ticket and a play-by-play broadcaster in Burnsville, Minn. Hear him on 105 The Ticket Sunday mornings from 8-11 a.m. on “The Wake Up Call.”