Written by Tom Schreier
There was six, seven things that happened in that game — it wasn’t good. It reminded me of last year. I hate to say that.
— Twins GM Terry Ryan after a 4-2 loss to the Brewers Saturday, which cost them the series
The Minnesota Twins’ race to the top of the AL Central has come as a surprise to everyone outside the organization — that much is well established and universally accepted. The question, really, is why it is happening? Yes, Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson are pitching better than they have recently. Yes, Trevor Plouffe is playing better defense. And yes, they have gotten timely hits and played well defensively in key spots.
To be atop the Central at this point in the season, however, is more than just getting a few lucky bounces, especially when the Twins play in one of the best divisions in baseball. Minnesota is winning games because of Paul Molitor’s management, Neil Allen’s instruction — two men who are using advanced analytics and coaching techniques to their advantage — as well as Brian Dozier’s spark at the top of the lineup and Torii Hunter’s continued production on the field and positive locker room presence off of it. And, at least in the beginning of the season, there were no holes at the bottom of lineup or in the starting rotation like in years past.
“The theme as of late has been trying to get balance, and when there’s no pressure on any one person to carry it, it seems like a lot of guys contribute,” Molitor said on May 4, following an 8-7 win over the Oakland Athletics. “The bottom of the lineup did a great job: Schafer had a big night, Vargas is starting to swing a little bit, and Danny had a hit there.”
While the starting rotation has stayed intact, mostly because of the strength in numbers, the bottom of the lineup has fallen apart recently — something that was exposed in the Brewers series. Look at the players Molitor named that night: Jordan Schafer tried to play through an injury and was eventually placed on the disabled list; Kennys Vargas was sent down because he wasn’t hitting for enough power, and, after the Brewers series, Danny Santana just was sent down to Triple-A because he was struggling at the plate (Vargas got called up to replace him).
Lately, the Twins have placed Aaron Hicks and Santana at the bottom of their lineup, and with Santana scuffling and Hicks playing inconsistently at the plate, the lineup has failed to turn over the lineup as often as it had previously.
On top of that, the Twins have no beef in the middle of their lineup. There has been no indication that Minnesota intends to call up Miguel Sano, one of their most hyped prospects, and while Vargas’ numbers have been fine in the majors, he was sent down because he wasn’t hitting for power. Oswaldo Arcia has raw talent and could potentially hit 30 home runs a year, but is consistently swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone and not making contact regularly.
That means Plouffe, Hunter, Kurt Suzuki and Eduardo Escobar are seeing regular time in the middle of the order. Plouffe and Suzuki are better suited as No. 6 and 7 hitters. Escobar is a super utility player that still is somewhat of an unknown commodity at the plate. Hunter, 39, is going to get some time as the designated hitter this year in order to help him sustain productivity and open up spaces for prospects in the outfield, but none of those players are bona fide designated hitters.
“Unfortunately we’re in a roster right now where we don’t have one of those guys that has taken a hold of it,” Ryan said of the DH the morning before he called up Vargas. “We put a number of people up there, obviously Torii DHing, nobody’s gonna look at that cross-eyed. When we DH a few other guys, the lineup doesn’t look quite as scary as we’d hoped.”
With Dozier, Hunter and Joe Mauer — who is slumping, but expected to improve at the plate — the Twins have a formidable trio at the top of the lineup. Without Hunter, Minnesota must depend on either the likes of Shane Robinson or Escobar in the 2-hole, which is suboptimal given that importance of that spot in the lineup and Hunter’s success while hitting there. It also means that they don’t have proven sluggers hitting behind them — essentially wasting Dozier, Hunter and Mauer’s ability to get on base. And with players at the bottom of the lineup taking poor at-bats, the Twins’ ability to drive home runners in scoring position is hampered.
On the defensive side of the ball, the outfield is much improved now that Eddie Rosario and Hicks have been called up. Hicks covers plenty of space in centerfield and has made his fair share of highlight reel catches this year, and Rosario covers a decent amount of ground as well. Together, these two young stars have reduced the defensive pressure on Hunter in the twilight of his career.
The infield is where it gets interesting. Plouffe is much improved defensively at third, committing less errors and fielding his position well. Dozier has been sensational at second base after being converted from shortstop as a rookie. Mauer is a superior athlete at his position at his position and a big target for his fielders. It’s shortstop that’s the concern.
Santana was either bringing his poor plate appearances with him to the field, or has struggled in his move from center field to short this season. The latter is less likely, given that shortstop is his natural position, and he possesses plenty of athleticism.
Jorge Polanco is hitting .315/.346/.440 in Double-A, playing for a team that is stacked with talent, but the gap in between that level and the majors is quite far. Although it isn’t unheard of for players to make the leap, it is not a sure thing that Polanco would have success right away with the Twins. “We’re not afraid to call a guy out of Double-A, but it’s sizable,” Ryan says of the gap between Class AA and the majors. “Some guys can handle that promotion, and some guys can’t.”
This creates a predicament for the Twins, because much of the future is in Chattanooga. The team’s two best prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, are there, as are bullpen arms Nick Burdi and Zack Jones, as well as their best starting prospect in Jose Berrios. “If you’re looking for stuff — which all of you always are, you guys don’t care about anything but stuff — they have stuff,” said Ryan, speaking the relievers specifically. “Some of them, it’s not pitchability, but they have stuff.”
What Ryan is getting at is the mental side of the game is more important than the physical side, at least after a player reaches Double-A, a belief that is widely held within the organization. “Up until this level, it’s physical,” Chattanooga manager Doug Mientkiewicz, a former Twins first baseman told Chip Scoggins of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. “Past this level, it’s mental.”
In order for the Twins to snap out of their funk and build off of their hot start, they need mental toughness from the young stars, many of whom have been and will be shuttled between the major league and the minors multiple times in order to get their game straightened out. “Some people it doesn’t bother them at all,” Ryan said of the demotions. “But some guys it does have an effect on them, we know that. How’s a guy gonna react when he goes down? Some guys get to work, and some guys just [think], ‘Ah, I’ll make it back.’ You gotta work to get back here.”
“We’re going to teach these kids that, if I have a boo-boo, you’re going to get your butt up and play,” Mientkiewicz told the Star Tribune. “We stress mentally, no matter what happens, nothing is going to derail me from what I’m trying to accomplish.”
Hicks and Vargas have already been shuttled between Triple-A and the majors. Santana was just sent down, where he’ll join Oswaldo Arcia, a 24 year old player that possesses a lot of power and has over 800 major league plate appearances under his belt. The Twins need good outfield play, a reliable shortstop and power in the lineup. They need Hicks and Buxton in the outfield, Polanco or Santana at short and Sano, Vargas and Arcia in the middle of the order to round out their team. But in order to have that, those players have to be mentally tough enough to ride out the ups and downs of the major leagues.
The Twins were exposed in this recent homestand, reverting back to their old ways in only the second sellout of the season. The first, of course, came on Opening Day when the team was dismantled 12-3, dropping their record to 1-6. They regrouped and climbed to the top of the AL Central, and they’ll need to have a similar bounceback now.
The second game of the Milwaukee series was a missed opportunity to showcase their revival in front of a packed house, but they were able to salvage the series with a win the next day. It was an important win because 100,000 people packed Target Field for the three-game series, the first time that since August 2013. The next game, a 3-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals — a team that is in contention for first place in the division and represented the junior circuit in the World Series last year — drew only 22,796 fans. Part of the reason was because Brewers fans showed up to Target Field in droves, but part of it might be that people didn’t like what they saw in the border battle.
Flaws are often revealed in the spotlight, and they were both on Opening Day and in the second game of the Brewers series, but it’s nothing that can’t be fixed. The Twins need production from players in their prime like Mauer, Plouffe and Dozier, of course, but they also need the young guys to thrive in the limelight. They can’t be deterred by demotions, muddled the consistent up and downs that come with being a developing player knowing that they are a vital part of this team. That’s why they call it The Show, of course, because everyone gets exposed in some capacity in front of a full house. The Twins certainly learned that in the Milwaukee series.
Tom Schreier writes for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha. Tune into the Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down this week in Minnesota sports.