Written By Brandon Warne
Today we’d like to have a “State of the Twins” address. And quite frankly, with five losses in the first six games it’d probably come across like a roast. But if we adjust for context, expectations and anything else, it should be pretty easy to be even-handed with it. So let’s have at it. Please. Please keep in mind it is early, and so much of this can still change from day to day.
The Offense – Overall: F | Adjusted Grade: F
Batting average is a terrible stat and should be rarely used, but it can help illustrate most simply what the team is failing to do, and that is making solid contact. The team is hitting .197/.257/.258 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage), with nary a single non-Joe Mauer regular hitting over .215. Eduardo Nunez has as many hits (two) in three at-bats as Trevor Plouffe does in 19.
This isn’t to dog on the Twins’ offense, though. It’s early in the season, and the one thing they should be able to do is score runs. It’s just that struggling so badly out of the gates tends to magnify other issues, which it has in the opening days of the season.
As a brief aside, it has to be somewhat encouraging to see Mauer doing mostly Mauer-like things thus far in the season. He’s still without an extra-base hit — hold the jokes — but is hitting .300 with a .417 on-base percentage. In his best years, that’s the kind of OBP he would put up, so the early signs seem to be pointing up to Mauer’s chances of bouncing back from last season. Again, we have to levy the caveat that it is early.
The Defense – Overall: F | Adjusted Grade: D
There really aren’t many great defensive statistics that we can lean on here, but one that fits the bill about as well as possible is defensive efficiency. That is, how good is a team at turning balls in play into outs? And right now, the Twins check in at 65.7 percent — just ahead of the White Sox at 65.5 percent. Unfortunately, the Pale Hose are dead last in the junior circuit, meaning the Twins — a team that strikes out virtually nobody, and by that token allows a TON of contact — is the second-worst team in the league and turning batted balls into outs. That is a disastrous recipe. Having to play infielders in the outfield like Nunez — who clanged one pretty badly Sunday at U.S. Cellular — invokes unpleasant memories of last year, something we thought might change under a new skipper. And maybe it still will, but it sure feels the same so far.
The Starting Pitching – Overall: F | Adjusted Grade: F
Through just over one full trip through the rotation, the club has the worst starters’ ERA (6.61) and is near the bottom in strikeouts and walks per nine innings. Tommy Milone was tremendous in the win over the White Sox, and flirted with a one-hitter until the late innings, but every other starter has struggled a bit out of the gates. Phil Hughes has thrown two very similar games, lasting six innings in each while throwing similar numbers of pitches and strikes while walking just one of the 53 batters he has faced. It’s also worth noting that he’s faced David Price and Chris Sale — arguably the two best lefties in the American League. As a result, it’s not surprising he — and the whole team, quite frankly — have had a tougher-than-expected start to the season. Before both got roughed up, Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco both showed some encouraging signs. Pelfrey was throwing 96 mph in the early going, and Nolasco was getting fantastic movement on his pitches. In isolation, both of those things are very encouraging. But in the context of both getting beat up a little bit, it’s hard to be much more positive than that.
The Bullpen – Overall: D | Adjusted Grade: C
Not much was expected out of the bullpen out of the gates, and those expectations have to be adjusted even further when considering that Casey Fien has been shelved since tossing an inning against his former team in the third game of the season. Just three teams have worse bullpen ERAs than the Twins, but the club is in the middle of the pack in bullpen FIP (context-neutralized ERA) at 3.57, so the struggles have been a little (not a lot) overblown. It’s still terribly worrisome that the Twins are dead last with just 4.6 K/9 as a bullpen unit. It isn’t close, either, as just two other teams are under 6.0. Last year’s AL average was over 8.0. That needs to climb in a hurry, or this bunch will get buried. The other troubling thing is that with five losses in six games, the team’s best reliever — Glen Perkins — rarely gets a chance to pitch unless it’s a “get his work in” inning, a situation in which closers can frequently struggle. Early returns on J.R. Graham have been quite good, as he’s thrown three scoreless appearances spanning 3.1 innings, but nobody at this point is out of the woods. Blaine Boyer has struggled — six earned runs, 11 hits in just three innings — so it’ll be interesting to see what the club’s leash is on him. He didn’t allow his sixth earned run until Aug. 15 last year, so he’s dug himself a bit of a hole. Still, he was pretty good for the Padres last year, so he probably has a bit longer to get it together. Overall though, the bullpen needs to be better.
Overall: F | Adjusted Grade: F
It’s still very early, but the early returns aren’t good. But a four- or five-win week can change a lot. Go out, have fun at the Home Opener and keep in mind that it’s still very day-to-day. Don’t give up yet, Twins fans.