Written By Chris Schad
On Wednesday afternoon, Minnesota Vikings general manager Rick Spielman and head coach Mike Zimmer made a visit to Adrian Peterson’s home in Houston. The main aspect of the trip was to find out exactly what was on the running back’s mind as he mulled a return to the Vikings after sitting out the final 15 games of the 2014 season while he fought charges of child abuse.
While many media outlets have speculated that Peterson doesn’t want to return to the team that drafted him, nobody knows what happened inside that house. However, the events outside of it may have had a bigger impact on the situation as less than 24 hours earlier, the Philadelphia Eagles traded LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills for linebacker Kiko Alonso.
With that move, it’s unlikely that Spielman will be sending Chip Kelly or Doug Whaley a Christmas card as the market has already been set for a potential trade of his star running back. If this is the route that needs to be taken to solve the Peterson dilemma, the Vikings need to gauge several factors before pulling the trigger.
The first step is to figure out Peterson’s trade value. To do that, we need to ask whether LeSean McCoy is better than Adrian Peterson.
By the tale of the tape, McCoy is younger (27) than Peterson (almost 30) and was set to make less money ($11.9 million) than Peterson ($15.4 million) in 2015. McCoy was also coming off a down year (4.2 yards per carry was second-lowest in career), but at least he was on the field. The same couldn’t be said about Peterson, who played in just one game in 2014.
In the end, the Eagles were able to get Alonso from the Bills, who had played well in his rookie season of 2013 but tore his ACL during an offseason workout last summer. The injury forced him to miss the 2014 campaign, but he should be ready for training camp. Of course, an ACL injury is always a risky one for people not named Adrian Peterson.
It’s fair to wonder if a returning Alonso would be less valuable than a second-round pick and might even be a borderline third-rounder. It certainly isn’t worth a top selection, which damages the chances of the Vikings getting what they want in a deal.
This year also presents the most saturated running back market in years. Next week, several teams will fill their holes by tapping into a free-agent market with several starters such as DeMarco Murray, Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller. Others will wait and try to take advantage of one of the deepest running back draft classes in recent years with headliners Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley with lesser-heralded backs Ameer Abdullah and Mike Davis available in the later rounds.
With the market being the way it is, it’s fair to wonder what potential suitors would be willing to give up for Peterson. Fortunately for us, the star running back reportedly handed the Vikings a list of teams he wants to play for, which can help target some of the assets on opposing rosters.
According to the Yahoo report, Peterson has a distinct interest in playing for the Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys.
TAMPA BAY
Of the five teams, Tampa Bay seems to be the least likely to give the Vikings what they want. They won’t be trading the number one overall pick in the draft and even their second-round pick at No. 34 would seem like a stretch. The Buccaneers also don’t have the young talent that could make sense for the Vikings as Doug Martin would be a downgrade next to Jerick McKinnon and wide receiver Mike Evans would be untouchable.
SAN DIEGO
San Diego also seems to be an intriguing destination, but they don’t have a roster capable of parting with a key cog. With holes across the offensive line and (again) a deep running back class that could help them produce similar numbers behind Philip Rivers, a Peterson trade would shorten their window significantly. But then again, it’s not like Philip Rivers is getting any younger.
INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis is attractive because of what they have under center in Andrew Luck. There have also been rumors swirling that the Colts may bring in Andre Johnson to play across from T.Y. Hilton, giving them a surplus at wide receiver. Unfortunately, Donte Moncrief isn’t enough to bring Peterson to Indy and general manager Ryan Grigson may be gun-shy after burning a first-round pick for Trent Richardson two seasons ago.
ARIZONA
The Cardinals might want to ease back Carson Palmer’s dropbacks after a second torn ACL, and Peterson could help prevent the coaching staff from running Andre Ellington into the ground. What makes Arizona really interesting is that they could part with a wide receiver thanks to the emergence of John and Jaron Brown (no relation). With Michael Floyd struggling to find consistency in Bruce Arians’ offense, could the St. Paul native make his way back to Minnesota in a Peterson deal?
DALLAS
If there’s a team that’s going to make a crazy move to get Peterson, it’s the Cowboys. We all know about the conversation Peterson had with Jerry Jones about “wanting to be a Cowboy,” and Dallas is one of the more complete teams in the NFL. With Demarco Murray presumably leaving in free agency, there will be a massive hole in the backfield that Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar can’t fill. There’s a good chance Peterson will accept a restructured deal to play in Dallas and that might mean the Vikings could force Jones’ hand.
In the end, this mess has to end one way or the other. If the reports of Peterson wanting out are true, the Vikings have to examine every possible avenue before coming to a decision. In fact, the next four to five years of the franchise may be decided on this move.