Written By Sam Ekstrom
The news broke just before 11:30 a.m. and set Twitter ablaze. Pending an appeal by the NFL and a final ruling from arbitrator Harold Henderson, Adrian Peterson will be reinstated to the league, a full 48 days ahead of the league-mandated April 15 deadline.
The decision comes as a bit of a shock to those following the situation. Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press wrote a story earlier in February that quoted federal arbitrator Roger Abrams, who didn’t think the outlook would be bright for the Vikings running back.
“I do suspect the union will end up losing this case,” Abrams is quoted as saying, “and that Judge Doty will determine the commissioner has the right to make this decision under the powers of his office. … The union may not like it, but it also didn’t negotiate limitations on the commissioner’s power.”
Peterson’s victory in the court — again, pending an NFL appeal — is an important win for the NFL Players’ Association. But more importantly for the 29-year-old former MVP, it opens up his options with the league year starting in less than two weeks.
Had Peterson been suspended until April 15, there would have been a good chance he returned to play in purple. At that point, most teams would already have spent the bulk of their money in free agency and wouldn’t possess the funds to give Peterson the salary he desired if he were to be cut. In that scenario, the Vikings had leverage.
Now, Peterson has leverage. He knows he’d be a hot commodity in free agency.
The Vikings have three basic options; three options that you’ve probably read, re-read and heard reiterated a million times. But now that Judge David Doty has made a decision, we get to look at these options through the appropriate lens.
OPTION 1: CUT HIM
If the Vikings release Peterson, they save exactly $13 million against the salary cap. Peterson is due to make $12.75 million this season, but hiscap hit is $15.4 million. Should the Vikings cut Peterson, they would only owe him $2.4 million in prorated signing bonus, which is the last piece of guaranteed money they owe the eight-year veteran.
If Peterson is cut, the Vikings are suddenly are looking at over $30 million in free cap space for free agency, though general manager Rick Spielman has indicated they will not be big spenders come March 10.
Cutting Peterson would not have benefited the Vikings nearly as much if they’d waited until April 15. Sure, they would have opened up the cap space, but for what? Nobody the Vikings covet would still be on the market at that point. This new development could allow the Vikings to be more aggressive in their free agency approach.
Peterson, on the other hand, would go on the market and create a bidding war for his services. Dallas has always been rumored as a suitor for Peterson – and Peterson reportedly requested a trade to his home state last week – but the Cowboys are cap-strapped and still have two big-time free agents to negotiate with in DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant.
The Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos could be two teams to look out for. Both are playoff teams that lacked an effective running game last season, and both have enough cap space to take on another big salary.
OPTION 2: TRADE HIM
It’s unlikely that any team would accept Peterson’s current contract as it is structured today. Odds are, Peterson would still have to negotiate a discount with any new team. No running back in the league is paid more than Peterson, whose cap hit rises up to $17 million in the final year of his contract.
Other teams know the risks involved with paying top dollar to an aging running back. Peterson brings a competitive motor and ruthless running style but also a surgically repaired knee and a lot of new baggage. He is anything but a P.R. angel.
Unlike the NBA, where salary figures need to closely match up in a trade, the NFL uses draft pick compensation as currency more often than not. Those expecting another Herschel Walker-type deal should pump the brakes as soon as possible because the Vikings are unlikely to receive more than draft picks for Peterson.
The key for Spielman is to sweeten the pot. The Vikings will certainly demand a first-round pick like they did in the highly-praised Percy Harvin trade, but the team would also want a later-round pick or two on top of that.
They’ll have to fight against a climate where running backs are less valued than ever before. Though there’s not much precedent these days for trading featured running backs, the last noteworthy RB to be dealt was 30-year-old Darren Sproles. While Sproles is no Adrian Peterson, the Eagles merely had to surrender a fifth round pick for him.
One potential trade partner rich with assets is the Cleveland Browns, who possess two first round picks; just in case Johnny Football would like to team up with Peterson.
OPTION 3: KEEP HIM
ESPN’s Ben Goessling wrote up the blueprint last week of how the Vikings could finagle with some numbers in various contracts to open up more cap space and pay Peterson what he is owed. As disgruntled as A.P. may be, the Vikings’ offer to pay him full price could work as a panacea. Obviously, it works in Peterson’s favor that he is already signed for a certain amount and can force his way out the door if Minnesota moves off that number.
Retaining Peterson without restructuring his contract would mean the Vikings still have a decision to make come next year when Peterson’s cap hit is $15 million with no guaranteed salary. But at least it would give the team a year to see Teddy Bridgewater and Peterson coexist.
In an ideal world, Peterson would be receptive to taking a pay cut and staying on board for several more years, but there appears to be many wounds that would need healing first, primarily the schism between Peterson’s agent Ben Dogra and Vikings VP of football operations Rob Brzezinski.
Wednesday night, Minnesotans cheered the return of a superstar in Kevin Garnett who never burned his bridge in the Timberwolves organization. Now on Thursday afternoon, we may start witnessing the collapse of the bridge between Peterson and the Vikings.
Buckle up.
Sam Ekstrom is a staff writer for Cold Omaha at 105 The Ticket and a play-by-play broadcaster in Burnsville, Minn. Hear him on 105 The Ticket Sunday mornings from 8-10 a.m. on “The Wake Up Call.” Follow him on Twitter @SamEkstrom for further insights.