Written By Sam Ekstrom
The Tubby Smith years of Gophers basketball should have taught fans a valuable lesson about early-season expectations being unjustly inflated by non-conference blowouts. Nonetheless, there was ample optimism entering Big Ten play due to an impressive 8-game non-conference winning streak under second-year coach Richard Pitino that moved the team to 11-2 (arguably, the best win coming against Wake Forest – currently last in the ACC).
Minnesota crashed back to earth with two straight losses to open the conference slate. One, in Purdue, after blowing a double-digit second-half lead to a Boilermakers team that had losses to North Florida and Gardner-Webb on its résumé. The second came at Maryland to a solid Terps squad that might compete for a conference title after moving from the ACC. Clearly, the former loss is more egregious than the latter, but looking at the two defeats holistically shows a disturbing trend: Lack of depth.
The roster has been shaved down by five players the past two seasons with the transfers of Joe Coleman (St. Mary’s), Wally Ellenson (Marquette) and Josh Martin (Cal Poly), the dismissal of Zach Lofton and the suspension of DaQuein McNeil. Several of these players would have contributed this year, primarily Coleman and McNeil, while Martin’s presence would have given Pitino another option off the bench besides Charles Buggs.
“DaQuein McNeil was the most difficult one,” said Pitino on Dec. 8, “and he was playing 19, 20 minutes a game.”
Pitino only played seven players for five minutes or more against Purdue and eight players total against Maryland. To compare, both Purdue and Maryland each gave 10 players five minutes or more of playing time. After Martin’s transfer, Pitino stayed positive, saying he liked his rotation, but pointed to the sophomore Buggs as the wild card. “I think we've got a nice rotation,” Pitino said. “Buggs has got to get healthy. He's the one guy — if we could just get him healthy. It's that knee from the previous surgery. Let's get him healthy and I like the rotation a lot.”
Buggs’ health is critical because of the Gophers’ lack of experience at the power forward position. Joey King is the incumbent starter and has contributed 9.6 points per game this season, but the cupboard is bare beyond King and Buggs. International freshmen forwards Bakary Konate and Gaston Diedhiou are considered too raw to play in the all-important Big Ten season, leaving Buggs as the lone backup to play the position. Buggs, however, believes he would have more success as a ‘3’ – the small forward position.
“I feel like over time, just like looking into the future, I need to become more of a 3 man,” said Buggs, who was forced to play down the stretch at Maryland when King fouled out. “I'm going to have to play the 3 anyway, so I've got to prepare myself for that, so going to the 3 is kind of helping. I can have a post game and an outside game, just like, if you're playing some other players in the post, you can post him up, but if you have bigger players, you can bring them out to the outside and go at them on the perimeter because they can't really guard you.” Buggs’ development into a 3-4 flex player would help the Gophers’ rotation since current small forward Carlos Morris has no true back-up.
The center position is squared away with senior Mo Walker starting and fellow senior Elliott Eliason backing him up, but with both players graduating after this season, the future is largely uncertain, since no other centers within the program appear ready to contribute immediately. Konate, who Pitino has tabbed as next year’s starter, appeared in 11 non-conference games and played just under 10 minutes a game. His career high of nine points came on Dec. 19 against Seattle. Pitino has described him as “raw” and “[not] overly confident.” Not the words one wants to hear when describing the next man up should Walker or Eliason get hurt.
That leaves the guards – supposedly the team’s strongest position heading into conference play. Seniors DeAndre Mathieu and Austin Hollins were running a backcourt that had the most assist-oriented offense in the country through non-conference play. “[DeAndre’s] assist-to-turnover ratio is ridiculous. I don't know what it is, but it is phenomenal,” Pitino said in December.
Fast forward to January and the narrative has taken an unexpected turn. Mathieu’s assist-to-turnover ratio, which was better than 4:1 entering the Big Ten opener, was close to 1:4 between the losses to Purdue and Maryland – two assists against nine turnovers. Hollins, meanwhile, delivered two dismal offensive performances at the same time, going a combined 3 for 19 and scoring just nine points.
In Mathieu’s case, his 7.5 ppg in the losses isn’t as much of a concern as the carelessness with the basketball. Pitino told Mathieu after the season-opening loss to Louisville that he needed to focus on distribution and defense. “’You're 5’9”,’” Pitino recalled telling Mathieu. “’You want to be known as getting steals, getting deflections. Stop worrying about your points.” Through the non-conference season, Mathieu succeeded in doing that. But against more athletic defenders, his passing and ball-handling have looked sloppy like they did at times last season.
Hollins, on the other hand, is the one the Gophers count on to put the ball in the basket. As Mathieu puts it, “He’s the scorer; I’m the passer.” The Tennessee native’s scoring average is down to 12.5 ppg, less than his junior year average of 13.6 or his sophomore year total of 14.6. Hollins hasn’t scored in double figures since the Gophers’ win against Seattle five games ago.
With Andre and DeAndre struggling, the buck gets passed to offensive-minded freshman Nate Mason, who can’t do the job of two upperclassman starters despite his fearless 3-point release and bright future. Mason was a first-half spark off the bench against Purdue, finishing with 12 points, but contributed one of his worst games against Maryland, going for 1 for 7 from the field with two points.
Beyond Mason, the Gophers have no recourse at the guard position, which is why McNeil’s suspension (likely for the rest of the season) was so detrimental to the program. The only other guards on the roster are walk-ons: Kendal Shell, Darin Haugh and Mike Lukashewich. The three have combined for 11 points this season (all from Shell).
To summarize, the Gophers have three guys combined that are able to serviceably play the 1 and 2 positions (Mason, Hollins, Mathieu). They have one who plays the 3 (Morris) and one who wants to (Buggs). Then it’s three big men who cover the 4 and 5 (Walker, Eliason and King) with Buggs playing some 4 out of necessity. Have there been successful teams that played only seven or eight players on a regular basis? Probably. But they likely had more talent than these Gophers. Most of the starters have a glaring flaw: Mathieu’s offense, Hollins’ inconsistency, Morris’s defense, King’s agility, etc.
To assume this team can compete in the Big Ten is to assume that they stay completely healthy and have several players exceed expectations, all the while playing more minutes than they might be accustomed.
It doesn’t look pretty at the moment, but there are still 16 Big Ten games to go, and the Gophers can probably make the Big Dance by winning nine of them.
They face Ohio State on Tuesday, hoping to change their fortunes.
And if things go poorly, maybe Trevor Mbakwe can suit up for a seventh year.
Sam Ekstrom is a staff writer for Cold Omaha at 105 The Ticket and a play-by-play broadcaster in Burnsville, Minn. Hear him on 105 The Ticket Sunday mornings from 8-10 a.m. on “The Wake Up Call.” Follow him on Twitter @SamEkstrom for further insights.