Written By Brian Dezelske
We have reached the semi-final round of the fantasy playoffs. Putting together the right starting lineup is more important than ever; win this week and you’re in the finals! Here’s a look at this week’s key matchups and how they will affect your chances at making it to your league’s championship game.
A reminder that players such as Peyton Manning and DeMarco Murray will not be talked about, as they are to be in your lineups each week. Information is based on a 12-team standard-scoring league.
STARTS
Philip Rivers vs. Denver Broncos
I know Philip Rivers struggled this past week against the New England Patriots and that it may be hard to trust him this week. But, if Rivers’ showdown with Denver in Week 8 is any indication he should be just fine in Week 15. Rivers threw three touchdowns and posted 19 fantasy points against the Broncos back in October. You can bet Peyton Manning will bounce back from the horrific outing he had this past Sunday and will put plenty of points on the board. Rivers will have to sling it around to keep up and should notch a very nice fantasy total when it’s over.
C.J. Anderson @ San Diego Chargers
C.J. Anderson has rocketed himself into high-end RB1 status each and every week going forward. That Denver Broncos offense makes it really easy for running backs to succeed, and Anderson should wind up with plenty of opportunities to do so this week against the Chargers. Anderson has averaged just over 20 fantasy points per game over the last five weeks, and Denver running backs combined for 133 rush yards and two scores against San Diego in Week 8. That combination should lead to big things for Anderson this Sunday afternoon.
Isaiah Crowell vs. Cincinnati Bengals
It’s tough to play a running back who splits carries when you’re this deep into the fantasy playoffs, but Crowell’s matchup is a favorable one that owners will want to take advantage of. The Bengals give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing runners, and they were just torched by Le’Veon Bell this past week. And if you look back at the Week 10 meeting between these two teams, Cleveland’s running backs combined for three touchdowns and 169 yards on the ground. Since then, Crowell has been tabbed as the starter and has been quite productive despite the timeshare. Look for Crowell to finish this week as a high-end RB2.
T.Y. Hilton vs. Houston Texans
Over the last three weeks T.Y. Hilton has launched himself to No. 5 among fantasy wide receivers. He averaged 18.7 fantasy points and has four touchdowns over that span. Now he gets to face a Houston Texans team that he’s absolutely owned since entering the league in 2012. Hilton is averaging 122.2 yards in five games against Houston to go along with six touchdowns. Fantasy owners won’t find a better guarantee than Hilton in the fantasy playoffs. He’s a lock for 100 yards and a score.
Keenan Allen vs. Denver Broncos
Keenan Allen’s first touchdown of the season came back in Week 8 against the Denver Broncos. He finished that game with 73 yards and nine receptions. If you take out last week’s dud against New England, he’s been averaging six catches and 81.6 yards per game since Week 8. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around. If Rivers and Allen are on the same page, Allen should wind up as a high-end WR2.
SITS
Colin Kaepernick @ Seattle Seahawks
It was just two weeks ago on Thanksgiving night when Kaepernick last faced the Seattle Seahawks. He went 16-of-29 for 121 yards and two picks and finished with just one fantasy point. In fact, he’s only managed one touchdown in the last three meetings against the Seahawks, yet he’s thrown six interceptions. It’s Week 15 and the semi-final round of the fantasy playoffs, and owners simply cannot rely on this guy to get them to the finals. There are so many other QB options that should be taken advantage of.
Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard @ Cleveland Browns
Neither Jeremy Hill nor Giovani Bernard have been exactly lighting it up since Bernard’s return from a hip injury three weeks ago. They’ve combined for just one touchdown in that time, and just once has either running back topped 50 rushing yards since Week 12. With a near 50/50 timeshare being implemented, it’s hard to start either one of these guys against a stout Browns defense that’s allowed just one running back to score since Week 8. Hill is regarded as the safer option of the two, but both are dicey flex plays at best.
Dan Herron vs. Houston Texans
Boom Herron has carved out a nice little role as a patchwork flex option for fantasy owners, since Ahmad Bradshaw was put on injured reserve a few weeks ago. That being said, he’s a little too “boom” or bust for my liking here in the fantasy playoffs, especially against a pretty tough Texans run defense that gives up less than four yards per carry. Like I stated earlier he’ll be in the flex conversation, but something a tad more consistent is what owners need this week.
Mike Wallace @ New England Patriots
It hasn’t been a good month for No. 1 wideouts who have gone up against the New England Patriots secondary. T.Y. Hilton, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson and Keenan Allen have combined for 11 receptions and 138 receiving yards, and the thought here is that Mike Wallace is in line to be the next victim. Wallace has been held to single-digit points and just one touchdown in the last four games. That combination garners a risk-reward flex option at best this week, so owners should be adjusting lineups accordingly.
Kyle Rudolph @ Detroit Lions
Sure, Kyle Rudolph is healthy and played on every offensive snap against the New York Jets. But to only come away with two receptions for nine yards against a defense that has allowed the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends is very concerning, and frankly, quite baffling. The reality is that Rudolph has just 11 combined fantasy points in the three games since his return—not the kind of security fantasy owners are looking for in the semi-final round of the fantasy playoffs. He will be a very risky play this week, especially knowing that Rob Gronkowski is the only tight end to score on the Lions defense in the last five games.
NOTES
Buffalo Bills Defense
The Bills defense has only allowed one Top 25 fantasy receiver in the last seven games.
More Buffalo Bills Defense
Buffalo has given up seven rushing touchdowns this year. Six of them have come in two games.
Minnesota Vikings Receivers
It’s strange to think that Jarius Wright and Charles Johnson are the only Vikings receivers to top 100 yards receiving so far this season.
Brian Dezelske is the host of Cold Omaha’s The Ticket Fantasy Football Podcast, which you can catch here on 105TheTicket.com. Before that he was a contributor to Bruno Boys Fantasy Football and was also a featured columnist at Bleacher Report covering the Minnesota Vikings. Follow him on Twitter @BrianDezelske.