Written By Chris Schad
Adrian Peterson had to be looking forward to the 2014 season. Although he was about to enter another rebuild with a rookie quarterback at age 29, there was enough young talent and positives to sense that a quick turnaround could be on the horizon once he set foot on the practice field in Mankato.
During the preseason, there was plenty of optimism as new head coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner guided the Minnesota Vikings to an undefeated preseason record. Such things are usually mirages in August, but the team had done things (such as play solid defense and sustain a chain-moving offense) to hint that a better than expected season could be on the way.
That excitement only grew when the Vikings stormed into St. Louis for their regular season opener and destroyed the Rams 34-6. Peterson only had 75 yards on 21 carries, but it didn’t matter as the defense generated pressure with turnovers while the players around Peterson on offense, such as Cordarrelle Patterson, packed enough punch to pull away from their inferior opponent.
It was sunshine and rainbows as the team prepared for a possible statement game against the New England Patriots — and then the news hit.
Peterson was being investigated for excessively punishing one of his sons with a switch. There was a warrant for his arrest in Houston and the Vikings deactivated Peterson for that contest to allow time to get his legal woes sorted out.
Little did they know it would be the last time Peterson would be a member of the active roster.
As Peterson’s saga led to a season-ending suspension, it has become apparent that his successful tenure with the Vikings will come to an abrupt end. It may not seem like it at the moment, but the league structure has created a perfect storm where Minnesota will move on from the face of their franchise.
The Contract
It was shortly before the 2011 season and the mood was tense around Minneapolis. The Vikings had just completed a fall from grace after going to the NFC Championship game in 2009 and were about to embark on a lengthy rebuilding project after their quarterback, Brett Favre, had ridden off into the sunset.
As the roster purge was on with new head coach Leslie Frazier assuming the reins, the uneasiness surrounding the team centered on the contract status of Peterson. In the final year of his rookie deal, it was unknown whether the 26-year-old running back would want to be a part of a franchise in complete disarray and uncertainty. With the shelf life of the average running back set around age 30, it would have been understandable if Peterson had packed his bags and headed to a team ready to immediately contend for a Super Bowl.
Instead, Peterson and the Vikings agreed to terms on a seven-year contract worth $100 million. The deal made him the highest paid running back in the league and made sure that he would be the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future.
A funny thing happened on the way to that assumption. Teams who had spent lower draft choices on running backs were starting to reap the benefits of cheap talent. While the Vikings were paying Peterson $12 million that first year, the Houston Texans were enjoying success on the ground with Arian Foster, who was making $525,000 on an undrafted free-agent contract.
It was the beginning of the demise of the highly-paid running back. Teams started investing later picks on running backs in the draft and stopped paying for them in free agency. For a team that was foolish to sink money into a running back like Foster (who signed a five-year, $43.5 million extension in 2012), another team would counter by drafting Le’Veon Bell in the second round in the 2013 draft or even Zac Stacy in the fifth.
Healthy and effective running backs grow on trees in the new NFL and showing Peterson the door can rid the roster of a 29-year-old running back with a reconstructed knee.
The Vikings would also free up $13 million in cap room by releasing Peterson next spring. That money could be used to retain some of the emerging talent on the team (such as Harrison Smith) or tap into a free-agent class that could be loaded with talent.
The Situation In Dallas
When a decision like this is made, the first question that comes to mind is “Who will you get to replace them?” Fortunately for the Vikings, they would have plenty of options.
While the free-agent market doesn’t have many big-name tailbacks (Mark Ingram leads the list at the moment), the situation in Dallas could stir the pot.
The Cowboys are currently attempting to re-sign both Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant to contract extensions. With limited cap room thanks to penalties incurred during the 2011 lockout, owner and general manager Jerry Jones will have to be careful while not trying to further handicap his team down the road.
The first priority for Dallas is to re-sign Bryant. As one of the league’s best wide receivers, the Cowboys want to keep him in their uniform for the remainder of his career, but Bryant doesn’t want to be shortchanged.
"It's all about respect." Bryant said of his situation. "I am a very loyal person, but just don't test my loyalty. I know what I’m going to accept and what I’m not going to accept.”
Jones also went on to say that the Cowboys had “offered him some really nice contracts” and that “those things ultimately find a way.”
For those of you unfamiliar with contract speak, that “way” just happens to be the franchise tag. If Bryant and the Cowboys aren’t able to come to an agreement, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the franchise tag will be used on Bryant.
Meanwhile, Murray has enjoyed a breakout campaign. His 1,233 yards rushing are already a career-high after ten games, and his ability in the passing game (36 receptions this season) makes him a complete three-down back.
The Cowboys also know his injury history, however, which hasn’t allowed him to play a full 16-game season during his four-year career. That reluctance makes Murray the preferred option to get the franchise tag, but Dallas only gets one and that could leave the soon-to-be All-Pro running back hitting the open market.
What takes this a step further is Peterson’s comments prior to the season in which he told Jones that he would “love to play for the ‘Boys.” While his services wouldn’t come cheap, signing Peterson could be a lateral move in Jones’ eyes.
Would the Vikings have the moves to land Murray? That remains to be unseen. Yet, it has to be a situation that plays into the team’s decision-making.
The Draft Class
Talking about the NFL Draft in November could make heads explode, but the 2015 draft class has plenty of talent at the tailback position.
After two years without a running back being taken in the first round, WalterFootball.com predicts that two or three could be selected within the first 32 picks this spring. While there are bigger needs on the roster at left tackle and in the secondary, the Vikings could use their first pick to fill them and pounce on a running back the second day.
It’s unlikely that Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon would fall that far in that scenario, but the Vikings could snag South Carolina’s Mike Davis, Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon or Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah to be the “Big Back” to Jerick McKinnon’s current “Little Back” role.
The most intriguing option could come in the form of Todd Gurley. Highly acclaimed as a potential top-ten pick, the Georgia product tore his ACL and MCL in a victory over Auburn on Nov. 15.
If he takes a big tumble, it’s possible that Rick Spielman would use his annual tradition of trading up into the late first-round and letting the Vikings training staff make their attempt of reprising their role in the phoenix-like revival of Adrian Peterson following the same injury in 2011.
Younger is better in the NFL when it comes to the running back position, and this class makes it a perfect time to do so.
The State of the Franchise
Finally, there is the matter of where the franchise is headed. In roughly 21 months, the Vikings will open the glass doors on a beautiful new stadium. While Peterson’s face is currently plastered all over advertisements for the “People’s Stadium,” it’s fair to wonder if the image of the franchise would be hurt with a Peterson return.
Several sponsors pulled out when it was initially decided that Peterson would play through his legal issues, and the national media has turned the domestic violence issue into a firestorm that even the league’s powerful dictator, Roger Goodell, can no longer fight.
The Vikings have prepared for this day with the addition of McKinnon in the 2014 draft, and the young roster has been thrown through the fire with Peterson’s absence reaching 15 games. It’s foolish to wonder if they would want him back, but would a year off from the league hurt Peterson’s effectiveness?
Adding Peterson isn’t going to make the Vikings a Super Bowl contender anytime soon. The foundation, to borrow a line from Jerry Kill, is still wet concrete as Zimmer continues to put his stamp on what he wants this team to be.
While fans don’t want to hear it, it could be another season or two before the Vikings are competing for a championship, and it’s possible that Peterson may no longer be part of that plan. The writing is now on the wall that the Vikings are better without his services than with them.