Written By Brian Dezelske
Week 12 of the fantasy football season means it’s crunch time in your league. This week and next week are the final weeks of the regular season for the vast majority of leagues out there. Constructing the right lineup is imperative in these final two weeks if owners want any shot at sneaking into the playoffs. Check out these starts and sits to see how each will affect your fantasy team.
As always, we won’t be discussing starters who should be in your lineups every week like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Our information is always based on a 12-team standard-scoring league.
STARTS
Ryan Tannehill @ Denver Broncos
Ryan Tannehill has been, for the most part, a pretty consistent fantasy quarterback this season. He’s currently averaging 16.3 fantasy points through 10 games, with some of that now coming out of the running game via the read option. Tannehill should wind up slotted in the mid-to-low end QB1 range this Sunday when he faces a Denver Broncos team that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing signal callers.
Isaiah Crowell @ Atlanta Falcons
Last week I was screaming from the mountain tops warning people about the effects of having any of the Cleveland Browns running backs in fantasy lineups because it just doesn’t make sense to start a guy who’s part of a three-back committee. And while Crowell did grind out seven fantasy points for those owners who did play him, it may not have been enough to get the ‘W.’ But now that three-headed monster lost one of its heads. The Cleveland Browns released Ben Tate earlier this week (who was picked up by the Vikings, no less), and that leaves Crowell as the starter and Terrance West as the backup. Crowell will also garner the majority of the touches for now. Owners should squeeze any usage they can out of him, especially this week against the Atlanta Falcons who lead the league in touchdowns surrendered to running backs.
Andre Ellington @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks losing DT Brandon Mebane (hamstring) proved to be more critical than originally expected. Jamaal Charles just gashed the Seahawks for 159 yards and two scores. I’m not suggesting Andre Ellington will be good for those type of numbers, but pushing 100 yards and one touchdown doesn’t seem out of the question. I would be surprised if Ellington doesn’t finish as a top-10 running back this week.
Josh Gordon @ Atlanta Falcons
He’s BAAAAACK! Fresh off his 10-game reefer hiatus, Josh Gordon will suit up this weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. It hasn’t been determined how many snaps he will play as of yet, but my guess is he’ll start and play at least 50 percent of the Browns’ offensive plays. For those concerned about how he’ll look after the long layoff, just go back to the 2013 season and look at his first game back from his previous suspension. He torched the Minnesota Vikings for a 10-146-1 stat line, while being targeted 19 times. This Sunday he’ll be indoors and facing the Atlanta Falcons who give up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. It’s not the same offense as last year, but Gordon will be a major focal point.
Sammy Watkins vs. NY Jets
Back in Week 8 Sammy Watkins torched the New York Jets for 157 yards and a touchdown at MetLife Stadium. Now the young rookie sensation gets a chance to repeat his performance at home in Orchard Park. The one issue that may worry some owners is that Watkins only recorded three receptions on five targets in the first game. There’s no need for concern because Kyle Orton’s four-touchdown performance in the last meeting points to Watkins having plenty of opportunity to put up some nice numbers on Sunday. And the Jets have allowed 21.3 fantasy points over the last four games to opposing receivers.
SITS
Robert Griffin III @ San Francisco 49ers
RG3’s return from injury has been hard to watch, really. He’s still winless and has more turnovers than touchdowns. And while a quarterback’s wins and losses mean nothing to us in the fantasy football world, the in-game performances do. Griffin has been subpar at best, and it doesn’t look like things will get any better this Sunday when Washington travels to the West Coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers. San Fran gives up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and has held starting QB’s to single-digit fantasy points five times this year.
Chris Ivory @ Buffalo Bills
Chris Ivory was the first running back to score a touchdown on the Buffalo Bills this year, back in Week 8. But he only rushed for 43 yards with a 3.3 yards per carry average on the day. A tough matchup like this simply makes Ivory too touchdown dependent, and owners should steer clear if possible. He’s squarely in the low-end RB3 range this week.
Jonas Gray vs. Detroit Lions
Fantasy owners made the mad dash to the waiver wire to try to get their hands on Jonas Gray this week – probably without looking at what lies ahead for the undrafted third-year back out of Notre Dame. Squarely in front of Gray is the Detroit Lions who give up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position, and they lead the league in rushing defense giving up just 3.0 yards per carry. This matchup has Shane Vereen written all over it. Plus, as of early Thursday morning, it appeared like the Patriots were set to sign newly-released RB LeGarrette Blount. Obviously Bill Belichick will still try to establish some sort of running presence, but the smart money is on Vereen in the passing game this week. Roll the dice if you feel lucky, but the odds are in favor of Gray touching the ball less-than-half of the 38 times he did this past week and topping out at maybe 60 rush yards.
Michael Floyd @ Seattle Seahawks
Michael Floyd crawled out from under the rock he’d been hiding under to score two touchdowns in the first quarter of last week’s game against the Detroit Lions. He then proceeded to crawl right back under that very same rock, finishing the game with just those two touchdown receptions. He was only targeted five times the entire game, while John Brown finished the day with five catches for 68 yards on nine targets. The feast-or-famine approach Floyd is taking to football is only going to hurt his fantasy owners in the short term. He continues to hold steady in the WR4 range.
Julius Thomas vs. Miami Dolphins
I wouldn’t normally tell someone to sit Julius Thomas because that would be considered fantasy suicide, so I’m not going to do that. However, I do want to point out that his ankle issue could make for a dicey situation come Sunday. He’s surely a game-time decision, so owners will need to monitor that closely. One other thing to note: the Miami Dolphins give up the fewest receiving yards and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. If Thomas does play, he may still be limited with that ankle injury, and that could spell trouble for fantasy owners.
NOTES
Week 12
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers are the final two teams to have a bye this week.
Emmanuel Sanders
Sanders has hauled in seven touchdowns this season—all coming in the last five games. He had 11 total touchdowns in the previous four seasons combined.
Mark Ingram
Ingram has 618 rushing yards and six touchdowns while only playing in seven games this year. Both are single-season career highs.
Brian Dezelske is the host of The Ticket Fantasy Football Podcast, which you can catch here on 105TheTicket.com. He also covers fantasy football for Sports Radio 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha. Before that he was a contributor to Bruno Boys Fantasy Football and was also a featured columnist at Bleacher Report covering the Minnesota Vikings. Follow him on Twitter @BrianDezelske.