DEZELSKE: Fantasy Football 2014-15: Week 8

Written by Brian Dezelske

Week 8 is here, marking the halfway point of the NFL season. With only five weeks left, it also marks the stretch run of the fantasy season. The playoff picture in your league is shaping up, and owners who want any part of it will want to read this. As always, information is based off of a 12-team standard-scoring format. Players such as Juilo Jones and Marshawn Lynch won’t be discussed. We target players who hover around in the flex range.

Starts

Carson Palmer vs. Philadelphia Eagles

There’s a couple things to be excited about in this particular matchup. First is Carson Palmer’s consistency. He’s averaging two touchdowns per game and just under 270 yards through the air. He’s also cut down on the interceptions, having only thrown one pick this season. The other is Philadelphia’s secondary. If you take out Week 5’s game against the New York Giants, where the Eagles skunked the G-Men, they’re giving up just over 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. Don’t let that goose egg fool you, the Eagles haven’t fixed anything on defense.

Jerick McKinnon vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last week I discussed why starting McKinnon was not a great idea because of the matchup. Owners who may have started him anyway, like I did in some leagues because I had no choice, were pleasantly rewarded for doing so. He didn’t score a touchdown, but he did post his second 100-yard game of the season on a defense that had not allowed a 100-yard rusher up to that point. Week 8 brings an entirely different matchup. The Bucs give up over 20 fantasy points per game to running backs, and have given up touchdown runs of 38, 27 and 18 yards. McKinnon’s explosive style could create an opportunity to rip off a big scoring run.

Darren McFadden vs. Cleveland Browns

The Oakland Raiders have installed McFadden as the primary ball carrier for the last two weeks and it has paid off. Run DMC has averaged 70 scrimmage yards over those two games, and also has one score. He clearly dominated the snap count last week over Maurice Jones-Drew 40-12, and that likely won’t change this week against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are giving up 155.5 yard per game on the ground, giving DMC a great shot at eclipsing the 100-yard mark for the first time since Week 2 of 2013.

Greg Jennings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jennings owners have to be loving the fact that while the Minnesota Vikings passing game is extremely inconsistent, Greg Jennings has at least somewhat stabilized the receiving core. He has posted at least 70 yards receiving in three of the last five games. On the other hand, Tampa Bay gives up the most fantasy points to wide receivers. This combination gives Jennings high-end flex appeal with WR2 upside, even with Teddy Bridgewater’s inconsistency.

Doug Baldwin vs. Carolina Panthers

We saw first-hand last week how one player’s value skyrockets upward when a guy gets traded away. Doug Baldwin was the chief beneficiary of Percy Harvin getting traded from Seattle to the Jets. Baldwin finished Week 7 with 123 yards and his first touchdown of the year. Now he’s established himself as the clear No. 1 receiving option, and should be targeted plenty this week against Carolina’s 30th-ranked defense. Baldwin garners a flex option with potential upside.

Sits

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Indianapolis Colts

Two things stick out in this matchup that owners need to be aware of: 1. The Indianapolis Colts have only allowed one passing touchdown in the last three games. 2. Ben Roethlisberger has only thrown four touchdowns in the last three games, with two of those matchups being against Jacksonville and Cleveland. The Colts are playing a high level of defense right now, so owners should take a look at available signal-callers who have softer matchups.

Alfred Morris vs. Dallas Cowboys

Alfred Morris hasn’t scored since Week 4 against the NY Giants. The Dallas Cowboys last allowed a rushing touchdown in Week 5 against the Houston Texans, and only allowed a rushing score one other time—Week 1. It doesn’t bode well for Morris this week, especially now that Washington has turned to their No. 3 quarterback Colt McCoy. Owners shouldn’t even consider rolling the dice on a guy who’s become extremely touchdown dependent.

Roddy White vs. Detroit Lions

Roddy White did have a great Week 7 notching his first 100-yard game of the season, but he’s been very sporadic otherwise and hasn’t shown the consistency owners want to see from week to week. Also, Detroit gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, and Matt Ryan is going to have his hands full with the Lions front seven. White is also on the wrong side of 30 and seems to have lost a step. He does still rank in the Top 25 for targets which puts him in that WR3/flex range, but there are plenty of other options who will serve owners better.

Wes Welker vs. San Diego Chargers

Welker showed last week that he still has the speed and quickness to create big plays out of the slot, like we saw on his long touchdown catch. However he was only targeted three times, and has only been targeted four times in the last two games. This is a bad sign for fantasy owners who were hoping he’d help stabilize their receiving core once Welker returned from his suspension. He does have Peyton Manning throwing him the ball, but there are so many other options to choose from on that Broncos offense. It seems as though Welker has been lost in the shuffle somewhat. Owners who decide to play him this week will want to really temper expectations.

Pierre Garcon vs. Dallas Cowboys

Garcon owners are probably excited that he’s scored touchdowns in two straight weeks, but Washington just moved on to their third-string quarterback—Colt McCoy. That’s right. Colt McCoy. Savvy fantasy owners know that Dallas has only given up two touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in the past four games. Other savvy owners should be taking advantage of this opportunity with Garcon and sell high. Garcon’s inconsistency mixed with Washington’s quarterback merry-go-round makes him a dicey start option going forward.

Notes

Kyle Orton (Owned in 12 percent of CBSsports.com leagues)

Orton is averaging 297 yards in three starts, and posted two touchdowns in two straight games. He also has the best matchup of any quarterback this week. The New York Jets give up the most fantasy points (20.9) to opposing quarterbacks. He’s a nice option for the QB streamers out there.

Giovanni Bernard

Something fantasy owners need to be aware of is the fact that Giovanni Bernard has posted single-digit fantasy outings in two of the last three games—both of those against stout run defenses. He faces the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday who give up the fewest fantasy points (9.6) to running backs.

DeMarco Murray

Last week DeMarco Murray broke Jim Brown’s record for consecutive games with at least 100 yards rushing to start a season. However, this Sunday could be the day Murray’s streak ends. Washington gives up just 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. It could be tough sledding for Murray this week, although the passing game should allow him opportunities to punch in a goal line touchdown.