Written By Tom Schreier
With the Minnesota Twins suffering their fourth straight losing season and their fourth straight season with 90 or more losses, serious questions have arisen as to how the club should move forward. As the luster of Target Field starts to wear off, team management and ownership need to take an honest evaluation of what they have and if it’s enough to get the team contending again.
In order to see if the Twins have enough core players to turn into something once they all hit their prime years, I’ve put together the best possible team consisting of players currently on the team or in the system. This does not take into account potential trades or acquisitions, and assumes that all players are healthy and do not suffer major injuries from here on out.
The following is the best Twins team possible, given what they currently have on the major league roster or in the high minors (Double-A and Triple-A) and are expected to be with the big league club within the year.
PITCHING ROTATION
Pitching has, without a doubt, been the Twins achilles heel in recent years. The entire staff imploded in 2011, and the team has yet to fill out an entire staff since. Francisco Liriano was eventually traded, and Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Scott Baker all have dispersed — or are out of the league at this point. Since that time, Rick Anderson has had to work with the likes of P.J. Walters, Cole De Vries, Andrew Albers and Scott Diamond to try and fill out a rotation.
“The rotation’s been one of our problems this year,” says Ryan. “We got a lot of work to do with that rotation,”
Phil Hughes has emerged as a potential ace, and certainly a bargain at the very least, but Kyle Gibson is still inconsistent, Trevor May had a serious case of the jitters upon arriving in Minneapolis and veterans Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey have not translated well from the senior circuit to the American League.
Strong pitching is imperative for this team to win, especially in the postseason.
No. 1 Starter: Alex Meyer
Quote:
“We’re right where we want to be with him. We had a plan with him, and it’s worked.” — Ryan in August when asked if he’ll be called up in September.
Analysis:
Received in the trade that sent Denard Span to the Washington Nationals, Meyer is a 6’9”, 220-pound starter with ace potential. At 24, he has yet to play in the major leagues, however, and fans are left to wonder what he has to offer this team once he is called up.
Best-case scenario:
Meyer becomes that much-needed ace. He has an electric fastball, good off-speed stuff and does not suffer any serious injuries to his large frame.
Worst-case scenario:
Meyer either falters in the big leagues due to inconsistency (a la May and Gibson), or his lanky limbs are not able to hold up to a grueling major league schedule. That, or he’s just not as good as advertised and ends up at the bottom of the rotation or out of the league as a whole within the next few years.
Likely result:
Assuming he can stay healthy — which is always tough for pitchers, especially ones of his size — he should be ace material. Or, at the very least, he and Hughes become 1a and 1b in the Twins rotation. Although every team would love to have a bona fide ace like Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer or Chris Sale, these pitchers are expensive and are prone to regression. Twins fans have to look no further than an AL Central rival — Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers — to seen an example of that.
No. 2 Starter: Phil Hughes
Quote:
“What Hughes did this year is unbelievable.” — pitching coach Rick Anderson in late September.
Analysis:
Once considered the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, Hughes was an All-Star in 2010 and had 16 wins in 2012, but was otherwise inconsistent in New York. After catching the ire of Yankees fans last season, he signed with the Twins for a 3-year, $24 million contract in the offseason. The change of scenery has done him well, and right now he’s looking like a bargain.
Best-case scenario:
Hughes is ace material. Target Field’s massive right field wall is helping him, and the lack of Bronx cheers probably doesn’t hurt, but Hughes also has stuff. He continues to command his pitches and attack the strike zone and is the team’s ace for the next two years.
Worst-case scenario:
Hughes takes a step backwards and reminds everyone of his 2013 season in which he went 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA.
Likely result:
Hughes will be a top-end starter for the Twins and will assume a 1a/1b type situation with Meyer at the top of the rotation. He’s shown enough this year that’s he’s capable of having a major role in the rotation for the next two years.
No. 3 Starter: Ricky Nolasco
Quote:
“It’s been a terrible year.” — Nolasco after his second to last start of the season.
Analysis:
For years Nolasco was a good starter on a bad team. He was a double-digit game winner for the Florida/Miami Marlins for six seasons before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers midway through the 2013 season. He struggled for most of this year before admitting to playing through pain. The major question with him is if he pitched poorly because of injury, or if he is just regressing at age 31.
Best-case scenario:
Nolasco has a bounce-back season and lets everyone know why he got a 4-year, $49 million contract in the offseason.
Worst-case scenario:
Currently on the wrong side of 30, Nolasco regresses significantly and becomes dead weight on the Twins’ payroll.
Likely result:
Nolasco should was signed to be ace material, but even if he’s a solid No. 2 or 3 starter behind Hughes — and hopefully Meyer — it will justify the blockbuster deal he got. Anything less and the Twins might wonder why they gave him the largest free agent deal in club history.
No. 4 Starter: Kyle Gibson
Quote:
“I don’t know what he told you, but I also know it seems like we’re getting into a little bit of a habit. Tell me if I’m wrong here, but he said that stuff before. It seems to me I remember about a month ago he said the same type of deal, ‘I didn’t get after it’ or something, ‘I shoulda had that game.’ I hope we never hear that again.” — Ryan in late August after a bad outing.
Analysis:
Gibson appeared to be on the fast track to the majors before he received Tommy John surgery in November of 2011. He was able to climb back up the minor league ladder but has been plagued with inconsistency ever since joining the Twins last season.
Best-case scenario:
Gibson becomes a reliable pitcher after fighting bouts of inconsistency during his first two years in the majors and settles in somewhere in the middle of the rotation.
Worst-case scenario:
Minnesota never knows what Gibson will offer from start to start, and his lack of control both drives the pitching coach nuts and gets in his head. Even if he’s able to make a few quality starts, he’s moved to the end of the rotation or into the bullpen because of his mercurial nature.
Likely result:
Never really considered an ace, outside of his most bullish supporters, Gibson is supposed to settle in as a middle of the rotation pitcher. If he becomes a quality starter with two or three solid guys ahead of him, Twins management should be pleased with his development and productivity.
No. 5 Starter: Trevor May
Quote:
“I feel like I accomplished a lot of things. I mean, I wanted to get up here, and I wanted to be part of this team and make it more than just a spot start type thing — be a part of the rotation. And I feel like I got there.” — May after his the final start of the season.
Analysis:
Received along with Vance Worley in the trade that sent Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies, May is perhaps the most exciting prospect the Twins called up at the end of the year. Unfortunately, a case of the jitters and an inability to locate his fastball plagued the 24-year-old early on in his major league career.
Best-case scenario:
After a rough start, May settles in and is able to locate his pitches and give the team around 200 innings a year without any serious lapses in performance.
Worst-case scenario:
May struggles with location and it starts to get to his head. He’s eventually moved to the bullpen while Twins fans look east and see Revere in the hunt for the highest batting average in the NL.
Likely result:
May should be capable of being a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, especially for what the Twins gave up and all the hype surrounding him. Even if he never becomes a top of the rotation guy, Minnesota can be satisfied that they got value for a center fielder that cannot hit for power.
In the mix: Mike Pelfrey
Quote:
“We had some people, like Pelfrey and guys like that, that we thought they’d be in the rotation, and he’s gonna be back next year.” — Ryan in late September.
Analysis:
A product of Scott Boras’ negotiating skills and strong seasons in 2008 and 2010, Pelfrey went 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA and got a 2-year, $11 million contract out of it. The Twins are waiting for the one-time top pick to follow in Hughes’ footsteps and have success after leaving New York.
Best-case scenario:
Pelfrey reminds Twins fans why he was the No. 9 overall selection in 2005, and possibly could have gone higher if he wasn’t a Boras client, after fully recovering from injury.
Worst-case scenario:
Unable to get things on track, even after convalescing for the majority of this season, Pelfrey becomes the proverbial first-round bust that only has a few good years to his name.
Likely result:
After a year of recovery, Pelfrey takes a step forward and finds a spot in the rotation. He may not become the ace people thought he would be, but he at least shows some semblance of being an $11 million player.
In the mix: Tommy Milone
Quote:
“That will be the case with Tommy, and I think he’s gonna get an opportunity to pitch here, he’ll work out of the bullpen. It’s good by us, I’m glad to see that because I was afraid we weren’t gonna get an opportunity.” — Gardenhire before the last series of the year.
Analysis:
Milone has had sparse playing time since arriving from Oakland late in the season, and an injury kept him off the mound at a time when the team was trying to evaluate him. Management insists that they will give him a shot to be in the rotation when the team breaks camp, but nothing is guaranteed despite the fact that he won 10-plus games in the past two seasons with the Athletics.
Best-case scenario:
A strong Spring Training allows Milone make the Opening Day roster, and the 27 year old becomes a staple in the rotation for years to come.
Worst-case scenario:
His demotion to Triple-A before Oakland traded him is a harbinger for things to come, and Milone ends up becoming the next Vance Worley — a starter with major league experience under his belt that resurfaces in another team’s rotation.
Likely result:
A year after healing from his neck injury, Milone comes into Spring Training knowing a major league job is on the line. If he’s able to crack the rotation, and that’s possible given the fact that Meyer has yet to take the mound in Minneapolis, and May and Gibson have been inconsistent, he has a shot to show everyone why he has two 10-win seasons to his name.
THE BULLPEN
The bullpen has been one of Minnesota’s strengths throughout the thin years and should be good for years to come. “That’s one of our problems, we overwork our bullpen,” says Ryan when asked about starting pitching, “the bullpen was holding it together there for quite a long time. It’s just a matter of you keep going to get them night-in and night-out, and we’ve gotten into that spot.”
The major question marks, however, are how they will handle the pressure of meaningful games and how well each player ages. Perkins, Swarzak and Duensing have memories of good Minnesota teams, but the rest have only experienced losing baseball while in a Twins uniform. Perkins and Duensing are both 31, Fien is 30 and Swarzak is 28.
Closer: Glen Perkins
Quote:
“I know that I’m not going anywhere. We need to play better or there are going to be new faces here, and that’s what it boils down to is that either we play better or we’re going to have a new look.” — Perkins at the trade deadline.
Analysis:
One of Minnesota’s own, Perkins is a converted starter from the U of M who has done well in the closer role. The problem, of course, is that he’s been on bad teams and played at the end of meaningless games for most of his career. Because this team has not been in a pennant race in four years, he has yet to be exposed to the pressure of playoff caliber baseball as a reliever.
Best-case scenario:
Perkins remains one of the better closers in the game, and only gets better as the team starts to play meaningful games in September and, hopefully, October.
Worst-case scenario:
At 31, Perkins is not a young player anymore and battled injury early in his career. The combination of age and wear and tear causes him to take a step back as he enters his mid-30s.
Likely result:
Perkins is a proven closer, and Nathan has pitched well into his 30s. Assuming he can stay healthy, the Stillwater native has good stuff and has shown he’s capable of pitching under pressure. He should be a staple in the bullpen for years to come.
Set-up man: Casey Fien
Quote:
“Andy (pitching coach Rick Anderson) told me, he goes, ‘It worries me when you don’t show emotion’ because that’s when I know you’re thinking too much, just let it go, let it loose.’” — Fien on being an emotional player.
Analysis:
A little-known prospect that was drafted out of Cal Poly in San Luis Obispo, Calif. in the 30th round by the Tigers, Fien has turned himself into a quality set-up man, heir apparent to Matt Guerrier.
Best-case scenario:
Fien continues to locate his pitches and is able to hand Perkins the ball with the lead on a regular basis.
Worst-case scenario:
At age 30, Fien sees a decline in his stuff in his latter years and has trouble adjusting to the wear and tear veteran pitchers face.
Likely result:
Having proven to be a reliable set-up player, Fien revels in the opportunity to play in high-leverage situations with a playoff berth on the line and is at his best under pressure. He’s never relied heavily on speed, meaning his ability to locate his pitches should give him longevity as a reliever as he gets older.
Long reliever: Anthony Swarzak
Quote:
“Swarzy has been very good for us. Out of the bullpen, starting, the wonderful thing about him is you can use him in all different sorts of ways. He’ll take the ball, he’s got a rubber arm, he likes starting — we all know that.” — Gardenhire after Swarzak was given a few starts at the end of the season.
Analysis:
A converted starter who would love to take the ball in the first inning again, it looks like Swarzak will have to settle for being a long reliever — at least in the Twins organization. Capable of throwing 10 pitches or 40, Swarzak is a versatile pitcher that can be used in just about any situation.
Best-case scenario:
Swarzak proves capable of doing just about any job in the bullpen, in addition to making spot starts, and becomes one of the team’s most reliable pitchers in addition to Perkins and Fien.
Worst-case scenario:
Inconsistent pitch counts in his outings, and the task of having to do heavy lifting when a starter is removed early in the game, catches up with Swarzak, 28, and his ability to pitch suffers as a result.
Likely result:
Motivated to become a starter again, Swarzak excels in his role as a long reliever and makes a few spot starts in a pinch. As one of the most versatile pitchers on the staff, he’s often considered the third most important reliever in the bullpen behind Perkins and Fien.
Reliever: Brian Duensing
Quote:
“I think he went through a bad stretch where he was having issues getting the ball where he wanted to. I think he got flustered, you can see it, and he was a little frustrated. He has great stuff, but I think he went through a period where the ball wasn’t coming out of his hand, mechanically he couldn’t get the ball where he wanted to.” — Gardenhire on Duensing’s mid-season slump.
Analysis:
Like Perkins and Swarzak, Duensing is a member of that 2005 draft class that has spent a decade in Minnesota. He’s one of only a few players to remember success in a Twins uniform and although he did not pan out as a starter, he has become a reliable member of the Twins bullpen.
Best-case scenario:
Duensing continues to be Minnesota’s most reliable lefty, this side of Perkins, and helps the Twins return to their glory years while pitching in a role that he is best suited to.
Worst-case scenario:
After a fallout as a starter, Duensing’s best years took place while the team struggled, and he fails to become part of the winning formula.
Likely result:
Like Perkins and Swarzak before him, Duensing has spent enough time in the Twins system that management and fans alike know what they are going to get from him. Although he may not have been a great starter, he has found his niche in the bullpen — a similar story to that of, well, Perkins and Swarzak.
Reliever: Caleb Thielbar
Quote:
“This year I haven’t been real impressive with my performance. I have been giving up a lot of hard hit balls, and right now they’re going at people, but it’s baseball, and that’s not going to be the case all the time.” — Thielbar on his sophomore campaign.
Analysis:
After washing out of the Milwaukee Brewers’ system before even reaching Double-A, Thielbar was discovered while playing across town for the St. Paul Saints. He shot up rapidly through the Twins minor league system and has been a reliable left-handed reliever ever since his call-up last season.
Best-case scenario:
Using deception and good pitch location, Thielbar does not blow anybody away, but is tough to reach base against and continues his strong streak after a stint in independent baseball.
Worst-case scenario:
The momentum of being an 18th round pick that got picked up after being released by the team that drafted him wears off, and Thielbar struggles in his third major league season.
Likely result:
At age 27, the Randolph, Minn., native is in the prime of his career, meaning he should offer consistent production from here on out. He may not blow anyone away with his stuff, but so far he’s proven he can get guys out without having to do so.
In the mix: Michael Tonkin
Quote:
“You can’t just live on a fastball up here. He doesn’t throw 98 mph. He throws 94-95 mph, and you’ve got to have a secondary pitch, you have to have something to get them out.” — Gardenhire before the team sent Tonkin down in mid-May.
Analysis:
A 30th-round pick with a fastball in the mid-90s, Tonkin blew by players in the minors, but major leaguers took advantage of his developing off-speed stuff. He will have to locate his pitches in order to stay at this level.
Best-case scenario:
Tonkin develops three or four major league caliber pitches and becomes a reliable pitcher for years to come.
Worst-case scenario:
Without the ability to overwhelm major league pitchers with speed, Tonkin struggles to locate his pitches and cannot find a niche in the Twins bullpen.
Likely result:
Tonkin has shown improvement every time he’s been called up, so it’s just a matter of where his ceiling is at. He’ll likely face the same challenges that the recently-drafted Nick Burdi faces. Both players can throw high heat, but can either stay healthy and develop strong off-speed stuff?
In the mix: Ryan Pressly
Quote:
“Just attacking hitters, that was my main thing. I’m trying not to nitpick at the zone, just literally going after hitters. I don’t care if you hit it 500 feet, I’m still gonna come after you.” — Pressly the day he got called up.
Analysis:
After the 2012 season, the Twins selected Pressly with the Rule 5 pick and put him on their Opening Day roster last year. He made 49 appearances last season, but did not break camp with the team this year. He has vowed to attack hitters and has played well since his call up in late July.
Best-case scenario:
Pressly continues to attack hitters, and his stuff remains good enough to induce quick outs and allow him to be a reliable pitcher in an otherwise strong bullpen
Worst-case scenario:
After coming up with an attacking mentality, Pressly becomes more gun-shy after a few bad outings and starts to pick around the plate, resulting in increased walks and a subsequent demotion.
Likely result:
Pressly needs to continue to be aggressive, even as he gets more starts and gets more integrated with the major league roster. If he can do that, and if his stuff holds up, he could find a spot in the bullpen for the foreseeable future.
In the mix: Aaron Thompson
Quote:
“He’s been good. I like the way he goes at it. He can spin the ball, and he’s got a nice fastball. He has some deception, it looks like he can hold runners, he’s got a variety of different moves over there, so I like him.” — Gardenhire in late September.
Analysis:
Drafted No. 22 overall in 2005 by the Florida Marlins, Thompson made a brief appearance for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2011 after bouncing around Florida and Washington’s minor league systems. A converted reliever, Thompson’s unorthodox method of moving around the rubber makes him an intriguing prospect — even if he’s 27 years old.
Best-case scenario:
Thompson performs like a first round pick and becomes another lefty threat in the bullpen.
Worst-case scenario:
He struggles next season and his unorthodox methods are considered the culprit for poor play. After a feud with the coaching staff, he moves on to yet another team.
Likely result:
It will be tough for Thompson to crack the roster out of camp, if only because there are so many reliable lefties on the staff. He’s probably next in line, however, should something happen to Thielbar or Duensing.
STARTING LINEUP
The lineup has been far from stellar during the Twins recent downturn, but things appear to be turning around at the plate recently. “We started out pretty slow, we started off taking a lot of walks and getting on base a lot an awful lot, which was a lot of fun,” says Gardenhire. “We went through a period in the middle where we didn’t hit much, and we struggled scoring runs. And then all of a sudden, I think the last half of this thing, we’ve kind of come full circle, we’re doing a little bit of both.”
After striking out more than any team, save for the Houston Astros, in 2013, Minnesota has started to generate offense behind the bats of Danny Santana, Brian Dozier, Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia. All four players are still projects that have yet to fully develop, but given time this lineup could become a well-oiled machine.
No. 1 Hitter: Danny Santana (SS)
Quote:
“He’s been pretty incredible.” — Gardenhire in mid-September.
Analysis:
He hits for power. He hits for average. And he doesn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for any titles. Santana has been one of the most surprising prospects for the Twins, especially because he didn’t hit particularly well in Triple-A (.268/.311/.381 with no home runs). The problem is that he’s due for regression.
Best-case scenario:
Santana continues to hit .320, improves his strikeout to walk ratio and continues to have a sprinkling of power.
Worst-case scenario:
A free swinger that didn’t hit for much power in the high minors, Santana regresses to the point where he’s a bottom of the order guy that could be replaced by one of the Eduardos — Escobar or Nunez.
Likely result:
Santana begins the year penciled in as the leadoff hitter because of his performance in 2014. He will have to show that he can continue to produce hits while reducing his strikeouts, which came more frequently at the end of the season. Should his eye at the plate improve, the Twins have a special player that was never highly touted like Hicks, Sano or Buxton.
No. 2 Hitter: Joe Mauer (1B)
Quote:
“Joe Mauer is an on-base guy: He’s hitting, what? .380-.400 career? When you get on 40 percent of the time, that gives your power guys a chance, and that’s what we need him to do.” — Gardenhire in late August.
Analysis:
The hometown hero turned local scapegoat, Mauer enters the second half of his career with a lot to prove. He’s got to get back to .300 and has got to hit with a little bit of power as a first baseman. The biggest number for him is .400. No, not batting average, but on-base percentage. If he can get there, people should stop screaming about the converted catcher’s $23 million price tag.
Best-case scenario:
Mauer drives in runs and draws walks, resulting in a .400 on-base percentage, all while hitting for a little bit of power (10-20 home runs) and staying on the field. The 2014 season begins to look like a mirage, and St. Paul’s finest quiets all but his harshest critics.
Worst-case scenario:
As a result of catching for so long and sustaining a concussion — among myriad other injuries — Mauer cannot stay on the field and hits between .250 and .275 when he’s on it. Unable to reach base at a consistent rate, his abilities as a baserunner are negated and his value at first base diminishes. And 23 is mentioned so often you’d think it’s the number on the back of his uniform.
Likely result:
A full year removed from his concussion, and a subsequent transition to first base, keep Mauer healthy and he’s able to get in a rhythm as a hitter. This year is viewed as a transition season in the grand scheme of things, and Mauer goes on to become this generation’s Tony Gwynn, a guy that can hit for average into his late 30s but lacks power, all while playing on a team that competes for a playoff spot — something that he had only once since signing his 8-year, $180 million deal in 2010.
No. 3 Hitter: Byron Buxton (CF)
Quote:
“We know we have one young man up here that everyone plans on being your starting center fielder in Buxton. If he develops the way everybody thinks he [should], with his tools he’ll probably be up here.” — Gardenhire in mid-September.
Analysis:
Considered the best prospect in baseball by some pundits, Buxton is supposed to do it all: hit for power, hit for average, cruise around the bases, get to everything in center field — you name it. Unfortunately, a wrist injury and a concussion set him back for the year and leaves experts and fans alike to wonder whether he’ll ever be the player he’s supposed to be.
Best-case scenario:
Buxton handles the pressure of his hype when he gets his call-up and takes off running: literally. He’s able to handle center field, mashes at the plate and can steal bases with ease. Given time, people forget about his injury-riddled 2014 season.
Worst-case scenario:
Injuries suffered this season not only set him back a year in development, but also keep him from reaching his potential physically. With the lack of regular at-bats, and the accumulation of serious ailments, Buxton struggles to become a bona fide major league star.
Likely result:
Buxton gets set back a year, and joins the team knowing that a second concussion could be more severe at a position where players are prone to get one while chasing fly balls. Basically, Buxton does next year what he’s supposed to do this year, and improves steadily as the season goes along.
No. 4 Hitter: Miguel Sano (3B)
Quote:
“Soon, perhaps as soon as next summer, he and Buxton will be in the lineup together in Minnesota, resurrecting—the Twins hope—a franchise that hasn't had a winning season since 2010.” — Albert Chen, Sports Illustrated (Aug. 19, 2013)
Analysis:
The Twins famously had not one, but both of their top prospects fall to injury. Sano, the subject of the documentary Ballplayer: Pelotero, which examines how he was signed as a prospect out of the Dominican Republic, missed the year with Tommy John surgery. While it is commonplace among pitchers, position players rarely undergo such treatment and questions have surfaced as to whether it will limit him at the plate and force him to move from third base.
Best-case scenario:
After recovering from Tommy John, Sano is still capable of making plays at third base and shows the capability of becoming a 40 or 50 home run hitter in the major leagues.
Worst-case scenario:
Unable to make the throw at third, and suffering from elbow soreness, Sano’s power is reduced and he’s forced to play first base — creating an uncomfortable situation where Mauer may be forced to play third or in the outfield to accommodate the young star.
Likely result:
Like many pitchers before him, Sano recovers and has his development delayed by only a year. As my former colleague Jesse Golomb pointed out in a recent article (Insider required), Twins officials expect him to be unaffected by the surgery — other than that his development was delayed a year. If that’s the case, the Twins should have something special on their hands.
No. 5 Hitter: Kennys Vargas (DH)
Quote:
“Vargas is strong. Vargas’ ability there is to maintain doing what he’s doing as far as line drives, because his line drives are home runs.” — hitting coach Tom Brunansky in early September.
Analysis:
The hard-hitting Vargas has drawn comparisons to another former Twin — David Ortiz. His 31 RBI in his first 32 games put him on a list next to Joe DiMaggio. It’s safe to say that this 24 year old Puerto Rican was ready to rake once he got to the big leagues. The question is if it’s just a hot start, or this guy is the real deal.
Best-case scenario:
He’s the Twins do-over from one of their biggest mistakes. He becomes Ortiz 2.0: a reliable hitter in the middle of the lineup for years to come.
Worst-case scenario:
The strikeouts continue to pile up, and Vargas becomes Parmelee 2.0: A player that had a hot start and regressed significantly afterwards.
Likely result:
Vargas is going to have a few peaks and troughs until he can get the strikeouts under control, but the whiffs might be part of his game. This is a guy that’s going to aim for the fences without shame, knowing that he can knock his fair share out of the park.
No. 6 Hitter: Oswaldo Arcia (RF)
Quote:
“Arcia’s line drives are home runs, too.” — Brunansky in the very next sentence.
Analysis:
Arcia possesses raw power that few in a Twins uniform ever had. When he gets ahold of a ball, it usually goes into the upper deck or hits the flag poles beyond the right field bleachers. The problem is that he is hovering in the low .200s and needs to get his average up if the Twins are going to be comfortable using him as an everyday player in the long run.
Best-case scenario:
Arcia becomes the player Josh Willingham was the first year he signed, except he’s younger and therefore capable of doing it for a longer period of time.
Worst-case scenario:
Struggling to hit .200, Arcia is sent down once again and struggles to make contact regularly. Power means nothing if a player can’t get the bat head on the ball.
Likely result:
A power hitter that struggles to hit for average, Arcia isn’t able to get into the cleanup spot in a good lineup, but is always a threat when he’s at the plate. He should threaten to hit at least 30 home runs a year in his prime, should he develop correctly, and at least one or two of them should end up in Canada.
No. 7 Hitter: Kurt Suzuki (C)
Quote:
“One of the reasons we signed Suzuki is he’s playing so well for us. I thought it was wise to sign him, he’s just been a good player for us. He’s a good presence out there, he’s a good presence in the clubhouse, and he’s shown the ability to swing the bat this year, which I’m not sure we were expecting.” — Ryan on why he offered Suzuki a two-year, $12 million extension.
Analysis:
Not only does it look like Suzuki needed a change of scenery, but he also ended up being a great fit in Minnesota. After spending years bouncing between the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals, all while hitting around .230, the Hawaiian earned his first All-Star appearance while hitting .300 and playing behind the plate almost every day.
Best-case scenario:
Suzuki keeps up his hot streak and solidifies himself as a .300 hitter that can catch every day.
Worst-case scenario:
His borderline reckless play caught up with him over time in Oakland and later in Washington. A player known for not only catching upwards of 130 games a year early in his career, but for running into objects at a high rate of speed while chasing foul balls and taking many a pitch off the body, Suzuki has a lot of milage for a guy who just entered his 30s.
Likely result:
If Josmil Pinto improves defensively and continues to rake, Suzuki may end up being a quality backup catcher. He’ll remain a starter, however, if he can hit .260 to .280 and catch on a regular basis and Pinto remains a project defensively.
No. 8 HItter: Brian Dozier (2B)
Quote:
“He’s had a very solid year, but there’s areas that he can definitely improve in. When you’re batting at the top of the order, being able to shoot the ball the other way and situational hitting, hit and runs and things like that, right now he gets a little pull happy at times, and he’s got to use the field a little bit better. We know he can put the ball in the seats, but there does call for situations where he needs to drive the ball the other way.” — Gardenhire at the end of September.
Analysis:
A converted shortstop that struggled his first year, Dozier has turned himself into a 20/20 player this year. A value pick as a former 7th rounder, Dozier is a strong fielder that can hit for power while also using his speed on the basepaths and should be considered a franchise player in Minnesota.
Best-case scenario:
Dozier becomes a perennial 20/20 player as well as a Gold Glove second baseman on the field and the voice of the team in the locker room. With the ability to create souvenirs in the stands and charm fans with his perfect hair and southern drawl, No. 2 uniforms begin to multiply in the stands.
Worst-case scenario:
Dozier fails to improve upon his .240 average, and his power numbers decrease as less pitchers leave balls up in the zone and capitalize on holes in his swing.
Likely result:
The only reason why Dozier is so low in this lineup is that Mauer and Buxton should end up being better fits at the 2- and 3-holes. Still an asset because of his power and ability to get around the basepaths, Dozier should be a Twin for a long time to come.
No. 9 Hitter: Aaron Hicks (LF)
Quote:
“I’m just letting him play now.” — Gardenhire after Hicks was recalled from Triple-A at the end of the season.
Analysis:
I still believe in Hicks. He was brought up to early (twice), was underwhelming especially given all his hype, and should have had more time in Triple-A, but between his minor league stint this year, Winter Ball in the offseason and all his major league experience, Hicks can get things straight and be the 5-tool player he’s supposed to be.
Best-case scenario:
Hicks is the real deal. After two years of struggling at the plate, he hits between .280 and .300, draws walks and dabbles with the long ball. He essentially becomes Mauer with speed and the capability of playing the outfield.
Worst-case scenario:
The early call-ups and experimentation with hitting from one side of the plate get to his head, and Hicks becomes a talented player that everyone wishes had a re-do in his career.
Likely result:
Hicks went down and had success at Double-A again, then hit in Triple-A and now should have things more sorted out. He’ll probably begin the year at the bottom of the lineup and work his way up, as he should have the first time around. Defensively, he’s a major league player. The question is whether or not he can turn into the hitter he was supposed to be.
THE BENCH
The Twins should end up with a strong bench as long as the projected starters pan out. Instead of rotating projects in and out, a la Parmelee and Colabello, the dugout should contain two players that arguably could play every day and one super-utility player.
Utility: Eduardo Escobar
Quote:
“He’s had a great year, a fantastic year at shortstop. Offensively, 30-plus doubles, he’s done more than you could ever ask of a kid. Everybody talks about utility, but no doubt he could be a starting player in this league, and he’s proved that by his numbers this year.” — Gardenhire in mid-September.
Analysis:
Arguably an everyday shortstop that can also play third base, Escobar was originally a utility player when he came over in the trade that sent Francisco Liriano to the Chicago White Sox. While the other component of that trade, Pedro Hernandez, did not work out, Escobar is proof that general manager Terry Ryan still can work his magic every now and then.
Best-case scenario:
Escobar competes with Santana to be the everyday shortstop, while hitting around .275 with more power than expected from his small frame, or takes over at third base if Sano undergoes another setback and Plouffe regresses defensively.
Worst-case scenario:
Santana takes the starting spot at short, Sano or Plouffe hold down third, and Escobar fails to maintain his swing as a utility player. Without his pop, or an everyday spot on the field, Escobar experiences as serious recession as a player.
Likely result:
Escobar will probably be a utility player by trade, but the Twins won’t hesitate to use him every day should the need arise. His ability to hit balls out of the park while also maintaining a respectable average, as well as his apparently killer personality, allow him to become a valuable asset in the dugout for years to come.
Tom Schreier can be h