Every Minnesota fan has a "spurned lover" complex.
Yes, it's true. We live in constant fear of being jilted. Every star's longevity in this market must be taken with a grain of salt. 'When is their contract up?' 'Will they bolt in free agency?' 'Should I even bother buying their jersey?'
Every sport in this city has its fair share of examples. To name a few: Gaborik with the Wild, Moss with the Vikings, Garnett with the Wolves, Hunter with the Twins. It seems like the great ones all leave.
Then there are the reclamation projects; players who leave the Twin Cities as unknowns or castoffs and revive their careers in a different market. Local boy Nick Leddy getting traded from the Wild, Gerald Green figuring things out in Phoenix after leaving the Wolves, Gophers guard Justin Cobbs transferring to California and turning into a standout.
And then there's a whole heap of Minnesota Twins.
No team draws more ire for letting talent slip through its fingers. Here's a typical Twins-related conversation you can hear at your local sports bar:
"Who are we playing tonight?"
"(Team A)."
"We should've never let (star player from Team A) go."
Just last week, it was Carlos Gomez with the Brewers. This week, it's R.A. Dickey with the Blue Jays. Every opposing team seems to have an old face.
But it's easy to complain about a losing team like the Twins. Minnesota has flirted with 100 losses for three consecutive years after all. And what do fans do to deal with mediocrity? They play the what-if game.
"What if Bill Smith hadn't pursued Tsuyoshi Nishioka to replace J.J. Hardy?"
"What if the team had just held out a little longer on Gomez?"
"What if we'd kept Wilson Ramos around instead of dealing for Matt Capps?"
To an outsider, it probably comes across as panicked, pathetic and delusional. What gives Twins fans a right to complain? Aren't there a dozen other franchises with comparable horror stories of personnel decisions going terribly wrong?
That's what inspired this "research project," if you'd like to call it that. The goal: To discern whether or not the Twins are legitimately cursed. To see if they've had more players go on to do great things than other fledgling franchises.
THE METHOD
In an attempt to determine the success of a team's former players, I analyzed the rosters from the past five All-Star Games. Hence, this study only encompasses recent seasons. It is not looking at franchises' entire history. (That would probably prove to be more dissatisfying, just based on the law of averages.) The point of this project is to figure out who the unlucky (and unwise) franchises are right now.
The All-Star Game was used as criteria because most players involved are worthy of it. With the exception of the biased fan vote to determine the starting lineup, the bulk of each roster is determined by managers and is always based on performance. The majority of players reach an All-Star Game deservedly. Therefore, it's safe to say that anybody appearing in the game – though maybe not a perennial superstar – has the ceiling of an All-Star caliber player.
For every player that was selected for an All-Star Game, I recorded their former teams. Former teams included the club that originally drafted or signed the player, even if they never reached that team's major-league squad.
For example, David Ortiz registered tallies for the Mariners – the team that first signed him – and the Twins, where he first played in the big leagues. Each different All-Star appearance for Ortiz counted as an additional tally.
In the five-year sample size, I recorded a list for each big league team and came away with two numbers.
1. The number of total All-Star appearances by a team's former players, including repeats.
2. The number of unique players who appear on each team's list.
Add the numbers together, and you’ve got a final score. Why add the numbers? It gives grace to teams who made one or two poor decisions and had someone appear in a handful of All-Star Games. For instance, the Angels only had eight former players make the All-Star Game in the five-year window, but all were unique, which means they lost eight players with an All-Star ceiling. On the other hand, the Reds had 12 former players earn All-Star selections, but seven of those went to Josh Hamilton and Paul Konerko. Adding the two numbers punishes the Angels and protects the Reds.
THE DISCLAIMER
These results should be treated as interesting data but not gospel. The numbers make the most sense if you read them already having some knowledge about a team. Consider this: If a team's number is miniscule, it can mean one of two polar opposites. Either that team had absolutely no talent for a long stretch, or that team brought on a great deal of talent and managed to retain it. I say this because the two lowest scores on the list demonstrate both of these extremes.
Also, a high score can either be an indictment or a compliment. 'Wow, your team really screwed up that decision,' or 'Congrats, your team bred a ton of talent and couldn't afford to keep it all.' As you can see, this chart can really be interpreted either way. But it's still awfully interesting.
THE RESULTS
Feel free to skim them until you find your favorite team or simply just want to see the winner/loser. If you're interested in whether the Twins are truly as unlucky and mismanaged as we all thought – well, you'll have to scroll a while to find out. Let's just say that Twins fans may be justified in their grumblings.
NOTE: In the case of a tie, the team with the higher number of unique players received the higher ranking.
KEY: TEAM NAME (Total All-Stars/Unique All-Stars): Final Score
THE "WE HAVE NO TALENT TO GIVE AWAY/WE KEEP ALL OUR TALENT" GROUP
30) CHICAGO CUBS (1/1): 2
Jason Marquis (2009)
And this is why a low score is not necessarily impressive. The Cubs' cupboard has been barren for longer than we thought.
29) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (5/3): 8
Joe Nathan (2009)
Kevin Correia (2011)
Joe Nathan (2012)
Joe Nathan (2013), Jason Grilli (2013)
Don't adjust your glasses. Don't have a heart attack. Kevin Correia was, indeed, an All-Star in 2011. He's also the only name on this entire list that currently resides on the Twins' roster.
Another Twins-centric name is Joe Nathan. There's still a great deal of vitriol from the Giants' faithful about the trade that brought Joe Nathan to Minnesota. The Twins netted Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser, and the Giants got one year of a disgruntled A.J. Pierzynski.
Bottom Line: The Giants are a great franchise that has two rings in four years. They did it with great pitching that is mostly still with the club. Not too much regret from this outfit.
28) NEW YORK YANKEES (5/5): 10
Ted Lilly (2009)
Lance Berkman (2011), Tyler Clippard (2011)
Melky Cabrera (2012)
Bartolo Colon (2013)
No real A-listers here. The Yankees keep their greatest ballplayers for life.
But expect to see Robinson Cano added in the 2014 row and probably for years to come.
27) BALTIMORE ORIOLES (7/4): 11
Miguel Tejada (2009), Jayson Werth (2009)
Jose Bautista (2010), Arthur Rhodes (2010)
Jose Bautista (2011)
Jose Bautista (2012)
Jose Bautista (2013)
The Orioles were one of four teams that Jose Bautista played for in 2004. Four teams that all kicked themselves six years later when Bautista launched 54 home runs for Toronto. Definitely one of the top regrets for several teams on this list.
26) CHICAGO WHITE SOX (6/5): 11
Nick Swisher (2010), Chris Young (2010)
Gio Gonzalez (2011)
Gio Gonzalez (2012)
Bartolo Colon (2013), Jason Grilli (2013)
A pretty clean rap sheet here for the White Sox. Surprising at first when you consider their recent struggles. Turns out most of the centerpieces of their 2005 World Series team (i.e., Jermaine Dye, Scott Podsednik, Aaron Rowand) dried up quickly following the title.
25) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (7/5): 12
Dan Haren (2009), Jason Marquis (2009)
Scott Rolen (2010)
Chris Perez (2011), Scott Rolen (2011), Placido Polanco (2011)
Chris Perez (2012)
Two titles in the last decade and no egregious "misses" on this list. Lump St. Louis in with San Francisco as the two franchises that probably come out looking the best from this compilation.
THE "BAUTISTA/BELTRAN" GROUP
24) TAMPA BAY RAYS (10/4): 14
Josh Hamilton (2009), Edwin Jackson (2009)
Josh Hamilton (2010), Ty Wigginton (2010), Jose Bautista (2010)
Josh Hamilton (2011), Jose Bautista (2011)
Josh Hamilton (2012), Jose Bautista (2012)
Jose Bautista (2013)
Just imagining a coulda-been outfield with Jose Bautista and Josh Hamilton (not to mention Carl Crawford) makes a person sick for the Rays. Bautista played sparingly for Tampa in the 2004 season, and Hamilton was the no. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft. Both have made four All-Star Games in the last five years.
23) MILWAUKEE BREWERS (9/5): 14
Nelson Cruz (2009), Francisco Cordero (2009), CC Sabathia (2009)
CC Sabathia (2011)
Prince Fielder (2012), CC Sabathia (2012)
J.J. Hardy (2013), Prince Fielder (2013), Nelson Cruz (2013)
Some really strong names on this list. CC Sabathia only spent half a season with the Brewers in 2008, but helped them make a playoff appearance before the Yankees bought him in the offseason. Prince Fielder spent seven strong seasons with the team and clubbed 230 home runs in that span. Nelson Cruz had some terrific years with the AL Champion Rangers and is currently making a bid at another All-Star Game with Baltimore. He leads the league with 21 home runs.
22) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (8/6): 14
Ryan Franklin (2009)
Cliff Lee (2010), Arthur Rhodes (2010), Scott Rolen (2010), Michael Bourn (2010), Marlon Byrd (2010)
Scott Rolen (2011)
Michael Bourn (2012)
If you eliminate 2010, the Phillies fared well in these rankings, although their trade of Cliff Lee to the Mariners remains a bit mysterious. And all the more mysterious because the Phillies spent $120 million to get Lee back in 2010.
21) PITTSBURGH PIRATES (9/6): 15
Jason Bay (2009), Tim Wakefield (2009)
Ty Wigginton (2010), Jose Bautista (2010), Matt Capps (2010)
Jose Bautista (2011), Ryan Vogelsong (2011)
Jose Bautista (2012)
Jose Bautista (2013)
The Pirates quit on Bautista once, but got him back after he toured the rest of the league unsuccessfully. He had solid campaigns in 2006 and 2007, then got traded to Toronto in 2008 for a player to be named later. In 2010, Bautista hit 54 home runs. Ouch, Pittsburgh. Also stunning: Matt Capps was an All-Star in 2010.
20) KANSAS CITY ROYALS (11/5): 16
Raul Ibanez (2009), Carlos Beltran (2009)
John Buck (2010), Jose Bautista (2010)
Jose Bautista (2011), Carlos Beltran (2011)
Jose Bautista (2012), Melky Cabrera (2012), Carlos Beltran (2012)
Jose Bautista (2013), Carlos Beltran (2013)
People often forget that the Royals have had some good players roll through their system. Carlos Beltran was a Royals draft pick and gave Kansas City six-plus seasons, driving in 100 or more runs four different times. The Royals were also the final team to miss out on Bautista before he settled in with Pittsburgh.
19) NEW YORK METS (10/6): 16
Nelson Cruz (2009), Heath Bell (2009)
Ty Wigginton (2010), Heath Bell (2010)
Heath Bell (2011)
Carlos Beltran (2012)
Nelson Cruz (2013), Carlos Beltran (2013), Carlos Gomez (2013), Marco Scutaro (2013)
The Mets got Beltran's best years in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Then he started getting hurt, and his production dropped, prompting a trade to the Giants. After a throw-away half season in San Francisco, Beltran revived his career in St. Louis and helped them win a World Series.
THE "WE'VE LOST A STAR OR TWO" GROUP
18) COLORADO ROCKIES (9/7): 16
Matt Holliday (2010)
Matt Holliday (2011)
Huston Street (2012), Matt Holliday (2012)
Jason Grilli (2013), Everth Cabrera (2013), Marco Scutaro (2013)
By far the biggest name here is Matt Holliday. The Rockies slugger was traded from Colorado in 2008 after leading them to a World Series appearance in 2007. Besides that, not too much regret here for the Rockies.
17) LOS ANGELES ANGELS (8/8): 16
Vladimir Guerrero (2010)
Mike Napoli (2012), Fernando Rodney (2012)
Bartolo Colon (2013), Torii Hunter (2013), Patrick Corbin (2013), Jean Segura (13)
The first six names on this list are established veterans who made a stop in Los Angeles in the middle of their careers, but the Halos may end up regretting the departures of Patrick Corbin and Jean Segura the most; both are just 24 years old.
Adrian Gonzalez (2011), Kevin Correia (2011), Shane Victorino (2011)
Jake Peavy (2012), David Freese (2012)
Two Twins on this list – Bartlett and Correia – but those aren't the names that give Padres fans ulcers. Not only have they had to watch most of these players do great things after leaving San Diego, they've witnessed a number of them celebrate World Series championships: Victorino with Philadelphia and Boston, Peavy with Boston and Freese with St. Louis.
15) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (10/8): 18
Jose Valverde (2010)
Jose Valverde (2011), Carlos Quentin (2011)
Ryan Cook (2012), Adam Dunn (2012), Dan Uggla (2012), Carlos Gonzalez (2012)
Max Scherzer (2013), Carlos Gonzalez (2013)
You're probably doing about half a dozen double-takes glancing at this list. That's because, for most of these players, Arizona was only a brief pit stop. Carlos Quentin played there for two partial seasons, Adam Dunn spent half a season with the D'backs when he was traded from the Reds, Carlos Gonzalez was drafted by Arizona but never played them and Max Scherzer – now one of baseball's best – only pitched one full season with the team. Losing Gonzalez and Scherzer are the ones that really stick in Arizona's craw.
14) BOSTON RED SOX (10/8): 18
Hanley Ramirez (2010)
Adrian Beltre (2011)
Adrian Beltre (2012), Jonathan Papelbon (2012)
Justin Masterson (2013), Bartolo Colon (2013), Marco Scutaro (2013)
The Red Sox can't have too many regrets; not after winning three World Series in the last 10 years. Hanley Ramirez, however, was a big miss. The shortstop signed with Boston originally, but only had two at-bats with the pro team before departing. The Sox sent him to Florida in a trade that brought in Josh Beckett. Having Adrian Beltre would've been nice as well, considering the Red Sox are still in limbo at the third base position. Beltre was a beast in his one year with Boston, but his one-year contract allowed him to cash in with an $80 million deal in Texas.
13) CINCINNATTI REDS (12/7): 19
Josh Hamilton (2010), Paul Konerko (2010)
Josh Hamilton (2011), Paul Konerko (2011)
Josh Hamilton (2012), Paul Konerko (2012), Adam Dunn (2012)
Edwin Encarnacion (2013), Travis Wood (2013)
The Reds are likely playing the what-if game quite a bit with this group. Josh Hamilton and Paul Konerko were both let go very early in their careers, and Trevor Hoffman – a top-three closer of all time – was drafted by Cincinnatti but never pitched for them. Finally, Edwin Encarnacion had some decent years with the Reds but started setting the world on fire with Toronto. Dunn, who gave the Reds a bevy of 40-homer seasons, is still hitting longballs with Chicago. Between Hamiton, Konerko, Encarnacion and Dunn, there are over 1,200 home runs on this list. Only about a quarter of them were hit in a Reds uniform.
12) DETROIT TIGERS (10/9): 19
Omar Infante (2010)
Curtis Granderson (2011), Matt Joyce (2011), Jair Jurrjens (2011), Placido Polanco (2011)
Curtis Granderson (2012), Fernando Rodney (2012)
Jason Grilli (2013)
No terrible regrets here with the exception of Curtis Granderson. The center fielder started his career as a speedy, top-of-the-lineup table-setter and only started showing signs of real power in his final two Detroit years. Granderson was traded to the Yankees in 2009 and promptly morphed into a 40-homer machine.
11) WASHINGTON NATIONALS (13/8): 21
Vladimir Guerrero (2010), Cliff Lee (2010), Brandon Phillips (2010), Marlon Byrd (2010)
Joel Hanrahan (2011), Cliff Lee (2011), Brandon Phillips (2011)
Adam Dunn (2012), Joel Hanrahan (2012)
Bartolo Colon (2013), Brandon Phillips (2013), Cliff Lee (2013)
Lots of repeats on this list that includes cast-offs from the old Montreal Expos team. Hard to fault Washington management for the decisions of the cheapskate Expos, who let go of Vlad Guerrero, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips.
T-10) TORONTO BLUE JAYS (12/9): 21
Chris Carpenter (2010), Roy Halladay (2010), Scott Rolen (2010)
Brandon League (2011), Michael Young (2011), Scott Rolen (2011), Roy Halladay (2011)
Marco Scutaro (2013)
T-10) ATLANTA BRAVES (12/9): 21
Neftali Feliz (2010), Rafael Soriano (2010), Elvis Andrus (2010), Adam Wainwright (2010), Rafael Furcal (2010)
Matt Harrison (2012), Elvis Andrus (2012), Rafael Furcal (2012), Melky Cabrera (2012)
Adam Wainwright (2013), Jeff Locke (2013)
Coincidentally, Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright were both given up in the same trade between Atlanta and St. Louis. Wainwright is now a 100-game winner for his career and has been one of the Cardinals' anchors on the pitching staff. Elvis Andrus, a young shortstop, was traded to Texas for Mark Teixeira in 2007. Six years later, he was compensated with a $120 million contract extension for the Rangers, and he is still just 25.
THE "WE ARE TOO POOR TO KEEP OUR TALENT" GROUP
T-8) MIAMI MARLINS (14/8): 22
Miguel Cabrera (2010), Arthur Rhodes (2010), Adrian Gonzalez (2010)
Miguel Cabrera (2011), Adrian Gonzalez (2011), Josh Beckett (2011)
Miguel Cabrera (2012), Dan Uggla (2012)
Miguel Cabrera (2013), Jason Grilli (2013)
Trading away the best hitter of the era doesn't help you on this list. The Marlins did so with Miguel Cabrera, who won the Triple Crown two years ago with Detroit. Not only that, but the Marlins dealt the first pick of the 2000 draft, Adrian Gonzalez, before he ever swung the bat in Miami. Add Josh Beckett to the fold, and there is plenty to rue for the 15 Marlins fans out there.
CC Sabathia (2011), Cliff Lee (2011), Brandon Phillips (2011)
CC Sabathia (2012)
Bartolo Colon (2013), Jhonny Peralta (2013), Brandon Phillips (2013), Cliff Lee (2013), Marco Scutaro (2013)
Sabathia, Lee, Phillips… Sabathia, Lee, Phillips… Lather, rinse, repeat. The All-Star Game is a cruel reminder – year after year – of what the Indians once had. The worst part about it is that those three trades netted Cleveland nine players and only one of them cracked the Indians' lineup as an everyday starter – Michael Brantley.
6) HOUSTON ASTROS (15/10): 25
Andy Pettitte (2010), Jose Valverde (2010), John Buck (2010), Ty Wigginton (2010)
Jose Valverde (2011), Lance Berkman (2011), Carlos Beltran (2011)
Carlos Beltran (2012), Huston Street (2012), Michael Bourn (2012)
Ben Zobrist (2013), Carlos Beltran (2013
The Astros aren't regretting missing out on Johan Santana's last five years. But the five before that when he won two Cy Youngs for the Twins? Definitely. Plenty of good pitching here between Santana, Jose Valverde and Huston Street. Valverde and Street would have been a tremendous help to the Astros bullpen that has a league-worst ERA over the last three seasons. Houston also lost a Hall of Famer in Andy Pettitte to free agency, an eight-time All-Star in Beltran (although they only had him for half a season) and one of baseball's most underrated players, Ben Zobrist, before he made the big leagues. It's easy to see why the Astros are bottoming out.
THE BOTTOM FIVE
5) LOS ANGELES DODGERS (16/10): 26
Joakim Soria (2010), Paul Konerko (2010), Adrian Beltre (2010)
Adrian Beltre (2011), Russell Martin (2011), Paul Konerko (2011), Joel Hanrahan (2011), Shane Victorino (2011)
Adrian Beltre (2012), Paul Konerko (2012), Rafael Furcal (2012), Joel Hanrahan (2012)
With all the Dodgers' history, lore and success, you wouldn't expect them to be so high up on this list. After all, they've had a winning record seven of the last eight years. Losing out on Paul Konerko, Joel Hanrahan and Ted Lilly occurred when management dealt them early in their respective careers. And it must have been a tough pill to swallow when Adrian Beltre went to Seattle in free agency following a 48-homer, 121-RBI contract season.
4) MINNESOTA TWINS (17/11): 28
Torii Hunter (2010), David Ortiz (2010), Evan Meek (2010)
David Ortiz (2011)
David Ortiz (2012), Joe Nathan (2012), R.A. Dickey (2012)
J.J. Hardy (2013), David Ortiz (2013), Jesse Crain (2013), Joe Nathan (2013), Torii Hunter (2013), Michael Cuddyer (2013), Carlos Gomez (2013)
We've arrived at the Twins. A high score as expected, though it would certainly not be as high if you excluded the 2013 season. Only one other team on this entire chart had seven former players in a single All-Star Game (and they are further down the list). If you are a bitter Twins fan reading this, please recognize that some of these All-Star appearances were flashes in the pan. There's no reason to get worked up about former draft pick Evan Meek, former shortstop Jason Bartlett or former reliever Jesse Crain making one All-Star Game.
Also don't let your blood boil over veterans Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. The Twins had severe budget constraints at the time and clearly would have loved to sign both. They won four division championships with those two. Just appreciate it.
Now for the ugly part. There are four players on this list whose careers took off after departing the Twins; a poor reflection on coaching and management. Example A is David Ortiz, who transformed into Big Papi, a World Series hero with the Red Sox and now a three-time champion. Next is Carlos Gomez. It took him a couple years, but he is now an offensive juggernaut with the Brewers. The Twins received J.J. Hardy in exchange for Gomez, then traded him a year later. Naturally, Hardy became a 30-HR threat and All-Star with Baltimore. And don't forget R.A. Dickey, who just faced the Twins on Monday night. The knuckleballer barely got a chance with the Twins in 2009. Three years later, he was a Cy Young Award winner with the Mets.
Alex Rodriguez (2010), Adrian Gonzalez (2010), Marlon Byrd (2010)
Adrian Gonzalez (11), Alex Rodriguez (2011), Cliff Lee (2011)
C.J. Wilson (2012), R.A. Dickey (2012)
Chris Davis (2013), Edwin Encarnacion (2013), Jason Grilli (2013), Cliff Lee (2013)
When you read down this list, all you see is stars. You could conceivably say that Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, R.A. Dickey, Cliff Lee and Chris Davis were the best in baseball for select seasons in their career, and Edwin Encarnacion is threatening to be this season's Chris Davis. To make matters worse, the Rangers netted practically nothing in losing Gonzalez, Dickey, Davis and Encarnacion. None of them had high trade value at the time of their departures. But credit the Rangers for staying competitive, notching over 90 wins in four consecutive years.
2) OAKLAND ATHLETICS (17/13): 30
Nick Swisher (2010), Andre Ethier (2010), Tim Hudson (2010), Arthur Rhodes (2010), Matt Holliday (2010)
Alexi Ogando (2011), Matt Holliday (2011), Andre Ethier (2011)
Gio Gonzalez (2012), Carlos Gonzalez (2012), Matt Holliday (2012)
Carlos Gonzalez (2013), Marco Scutaro (2013)
1) SEATTLE MARINERS (24/13): 37
Cliff Lee (2010), Rafael Soriano (2010), Matt Thornton (2010), Adrian Beltre (2010), Alex Rodriguez (2010), David Ortiz (2010), Arthur Rhodes (2010)
Adrian Beltre (2011), Asdrubal Cabrera (2011), David Ortiz (2011), Alex Rodriguez (2011), Cliff Lee (2011)
Adrian Beltre (2012), David Ortiz (2012), Asdrubal Cabrera (2012), Adam Jones (2012), R.A. Dickey (2012), Tim Lahair (2012)
Adam Jones (2013), David Ortiz (2013), Cliff Lee (2013)
DIVISIONAL BREAKDOWN
AL CENTRAL: 58/38 – 96
NL EAST: 57/37 –94
NL WEST: 49/36 – 85
AL EAST: 44/30 – 74
NL CENTRAL: 38/24 – 62
| Sam Ekstrom is a staff writer for Cold Omaha at 105 The Ticket. He has previously served as a play-by-play broadcaster in Iowa and South Dakota and has covered Minnesota sports since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @SamEkstrom for further insights. |