WARNE: Breaking Down The Twins’ Bullpen

WARNE: Breaking Down The Twins’ Bullpen

Written By Brandon Warne

In previous seasons, the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen has been a solid source of depth. That’s no longer true, as a drastically overworked unit cracked last year under the duress of throwing over 500 innings for the third season in a row.

To the Twins’ credit, they did manage to shave roughly 60 innings off 2013’s MLB-worst 579.1 bullpen frames — nearly 25 more than the second-worst — but that’s still relying on a much maligned unit to get an average of 10 outs per game for the entire season.

That adds up. Fast.

Jared Burton’s three-year stint with the Twins came to a close, and he achieved his three highest career innings totals in that span. His effectiveness unraveled rapidly, but three years and nearly 200 innings of a 3.47 ERA from a guy who signed as a minor league free agent is a pretty good use of the means.

The same caveat applies to Casey Fien, whom the Twins plucked from a Mexican League after a small sampling of big league ineffectiveness with the Detroit Tigers. Fien’s innings totals have climbed all three seasons with the Twins, and his strikeout rates tumbled from a fantastic 10.6 per 9 innings in 2013 to a subpar 7.2 last year. He still remained effective on the whole, but the breakdown of his month-by-month ERA is not pretty:

April – 2.70
May – 1.38
June – 3.38
July – 2.19
August – 8.10
September – 8.59

Even if the bridge to Glen Perkins was breaking down a bit, the closer did a good job of keeping it together in the ninth. Still, Perkins was not immune to the late-season struggles, either. Before he was shut down for the remainder of the season in September, Perkins had thrown 5.1 innings that month, and had allowed four home runs, eight earned runs and had struck out just one of the 26 batters he faced. Not surprisingly, Perkins was shut down with a forearm strain and some nerve discomfort, which would ostensibly explain the magnitude of his struggles. That brutal stretch bumped Perkins’ season ERA up nearly a run (2.72 to 3.65), and dropped his strikeout rate from 10.4 per 9 innings — right in line with the previous two seasons — to 9.6.

With all this in mind, a breakdown of the month-by-month reliever ERA for this team will probably come as no surprise (with rankings in parentheses):

April – 3.42 (10th)
May – 3.86 (20th)
June – 2.96 (7th)
July – 2.53 (6th)
August – 5.09 (28th)
September – 4.44 (24th)

The club didn’t really attack the problem head-on in the offseason, but that isn’t really a bad thing either. High-priced bullpen fixes routinely flop – hello, Detroit! — and with a team likely to be closer to the back of the pack in the Central, it makes sense to use the “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” approach anyhow. Heck, it’s what got them Fien and Burton in the first place. Even Perkins, a former starter who barely made the 2011 team, was basically on his last leg with the club. Some of the team’s best relievers in recent years fit that mold, too (Rick Aguilera, Eddie Guardado, Juan Rincon and LaTroy Hawkins, just to name a few).

The move to bring in Tim Stauffer from San Diego is one that should pay immediate, if not obvious, dividends. Shoring up the front end of the bullpen with a cheap veteran who can soak up innings is a savvy move, and quite frankly one that didn’t seem all that likely.

Stauffer is far better in relief than in the rotation, and addressing the innings issue on the front end should free up Perkins and Fien to work fewer, but higher leverage innings.

Stauffer and some of the other veterans — such as Brian Duensing — also provide a nice bridge to the future Twins, as both are on one-year deals and unlikely to see any further commitment made to them from the team. It’s not just the hotshot prospects like Nick Burdi and Jake Reed that find themselves on the outside looking in right now, either. Michael Tonkin, who has thrown some pretty good but limited big league innings, and Ryan Pressly likely find themselves on the roster bubble heading into this season.

That’s especially intriguing considering what will likely happen with the fallout from the No. 5 starter battle. The loser(s) of the likely three-headed battle between Trevor May, Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey will most likely find themselves in the bullpen. Maybe May heads back to Triple-A, but he showed enough in September to probably merit a longer look than fellow prospect Alex Meyer, who may be a half-season away.

Nonetheless, a couple of things should make this bullpen better. Sheer competition should breed success, as a number of live arms with good ceilings will still likely be ticketed for Triple-A. Similarly, with a bullpen that has more durable veteran arms — especially those who have primarily started in the past — overuse shouldn’t be as much of an issue this season.

But hey, it’s snowing, and it’s still February. Joba Chamberlain is still a free agent. There’s a lot we don’t know. Yet.